Israel and Hezbollah step back from war, but are there any true winners?

Israel and Hezbollah have stepped back from a regional war—for now. While daily rocket barrages persist along the Israel-Lebanon border, no clear winners have emerged, and the situation remains fragile and uncertain.

It was August 25 around 4:30 in the morning when Sarit Zehavi heard loud explosions.

"Literally the ground was shaking."

She didn't know what was happening.

"The blasts were truly something that we have never heard in the past."

It was the IDF launching preemptive air strikes in Southern Lebanon to thwart a major attack after Israeli intelligence gathered information on the incoming threat, according to IDF officials.

Israel prevented Hezbollah's full response to the killing of its Chief of Staff Fuad Shukr on July 30 from materializing.

Iran's proxy was meant to reportedly carry out hundreds of rockets and UAV strikes in Israel, while also firing accurate missiles at security targets near Tel Aviv. It was described as a large-scale ariel attack by Hezbollah, according to the IDF.

Sarit Zehavi specialized in the IDF's military intelligence and now runs an organization researching and analyzing Israel's security challenges in the North, but above all she is an Israeli Northern citizen herself, who lives with Hezbollah just 9 kilometers from her doorstep.

This is her reality. Since October 7, there have been daily attacks in the North and more than 60 thousand Northern Israeli residents are refugees in their own country.

And that also affects the economy with thousands of Northerners not at work, and those who remain, risking their lives to cultivate the fields and farm. The ongoing war against Hamas has tested Israel's economy, and opening up a second front with Hezbollah could cripple it.

"All of us civilians of the North that morning ran to the bomb shelters, including myself and my family. It just didn't stop for about more than an hour. Since this war started, I was very much afraid of a scenario of fire to all over the borderline, because I was afraid that with this scenario, we will see an infiltration as well," said Zehavi.

There has been a weekly average of 60 Hezbollah attacks in the North since the start of the war 10 months ago, which amounts to 2,804 attacks so far, according to Zehavi.

Hezbollah and its allies have been threatening a retaliatory attack since the assassination of Shukr, which Israel claimed responsibility for. The Iran-backed Hezbollah said in a statement that this “first phase” of retaliation was “successfully completed”.

Nasrallah made a televised speech after the heavy exchange of fire. In it, he said the main focus of Hezbollah’s attack was the Glilot base north of Tel Aviv, which is home to the Mossad and the military intelligence group Unit 8200.

He rejected statements by Israeli officials that the attack had failed, saying that Israel was keeping information on the damage “a secret”.

Many of Hezbollah's rockets are unguided, but it also has precision missiles, drones and anti-tank, anti-aircraft and anti-ship missiles. Since the 2006 war with Israel, Hezbollah has advanced its capabilities.

Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said Hezbollah was “thrown off balance” and its attempted attack on Israel. He said Israel prevented Hezbollah’s attack minutes before it was supposed to be carried out.

Iran's Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Nasser Kanaani posted to X that Israel has lost its "deterrent" power, saying it was unable to anticipate the time and place of Hezbollah's "limited and managed attack."

Any real winners?

With both sides claiming victory, there appears to be no real winners.

Zehavi referred to Israel's operation as a "success" and "achievement" with "limitations."

According to IDF statements, Israel attacked 270 Hezbollah targets, destroyed a few thousand launcher barrels, being careful to not cripple all of Hezbollah capacities in an effort to prevent a full-scale war.

Both parties can't risk a regional war - at least not yet.

"I think that Nasrallah is not interested in a full-scale war. But the problem is it is willing to take the risk?" said Zehavi.

The Iran-backed group possesses upwards of 150,000 missiles and rockets, according to the World Factbook of the US Central Intelligence Agency.

"It's something about Armageddon. We are not frightened from that. Israel is capable to defend itself," said Beni Sabti, a researcher in the Iran program at INSS.

Sabti said Israel's weekend strike likely hit around less than 1 percent of all the ammunition Hezbollah has, but since most of their rockets are short range, the key is to keep pushing Hezbollah farther from the border.

Hezbollah said it has rockets that can hit all areas of Israel with precision, but the majority of their arsenal are unguided and short range.

"I think that Iran regime and also Hezbollah understood that they have a limit," said Sabti.

He said Iran's government and Hezbollah leaders wouldn't also want to risk losing wealth and power amassed over the years.

Hezbollah, is listed as a terrorist entity in the US and Canada, but has participated in national elections since 1992 and has become a major political presence in Lebanon and would not want to jeopardize its political authority in the country.

The Lebanese currency was devalued by more than 98% between January 2023 and March 2024, with an annual inflation rate of 221.3% in 2023, according to the World Bank.

Iran's foreign minister told his Qatari counterpart on Monday that the Islamic Republic will support any ceasefire deal agreed by Hamas.

“We will support any agreement that our friends in the Palestinian resistance and Hamas approve”, Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi told Qatar’s Foreign Minister and Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, according to the Iranian Foreign Ministry.

This could be read as a sign that Iran isn't going to retaliate against Israel, understanding as Sabti pointed out, their so-called limitations. Despite that the US is continuing to boost its military presence in the region in anticipation of a major escalation.

White House national security spokesman John Kirby said on Monday, "We must assume Iran remains postured and prepared to attack Israel." He described Hezbollah's attack on Israel over the weekend as "sizeable."

The preemptive attack doesn't signal a change in Israel's strategy and likely prevented anything big from happening, showing success by acting on intelligence, said Sabti.

A game of political theatre?

Robert Springborg, an academic and Middle East expert, described Israel and Hezbollah's conflict as "political theatre" with "a lot of collateral damage."

"Each side is playing to its own constituency and trying to demonstrate to its enemy that it has potential, which it can escalate at any time. They've been engaged in shadowboxing now, basically since October 7th of last year. This is yet another round of that. Neither side believes that they could triumph without huge cost to themselves," said Springborg, an adjunct professor at Simon Fraser University [SFU], and fellow at the Italian Institute of International Affairs.

He believes that full-blown war was never a real option on the table for either party, saying that the regional actors are playing a "role" and can't take major risks.

Springborg pointed to Iran's first-ever direct attack on Israel in April, with an unprecedented number of ballistic missiles fired in a single military operation. The retaliation came nearly two weeks after Israel's attack on an Iranian consulate in Syria, which killed two top Iranian generals.

While on one hand Iran's move opened up the prospect of further escalation, it also involved extensive advance warning to Israeli air defenses. That ultimately allowed enough time for the majority of the drones and missiles to be intercepted before reaching their targets. He saw that as part of the political theatre.

"I don't think a bigger regional war was ever on the cards," he said.