Conflicting reports persist on cause of Raisi’s fatal chopper crash

Three months after the helicopter crash that killed Iran's president and his foreign minister, the true cause of the incident remains shrouded in secrecy for the Iranian public, with conflicting reports continuing to emerge.

On May 19, a helicopter crash in northwestern Iran claimed the lives of all onboard, including President Ebrahim Raisi, his foreign minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian and several others. The president was returning from a visit to a dam project, with three helicopters carrying the official delegation. The other two helicopters completed their flights without incident.

On Wednesday, the IRGC-affiliated Fars News reported that the crash was due to adverse weather conditions and the helicopter being overloaded. Citing an unnamed security source, the report claimed, "The investigation into Raisi's helicopter crash has been completed... there is complete certainty that what happened was an accident." The source identified unsuitable weather and excess weight as the causes, with the helicopter allegedly carrying two more people than allowed under security protocols.

However, the Armed Forces General Staff's communications center, which oversees crash investigations, categorically denied the Fars report, labeling it "completely false." The center urged media outlets to coordinate with them on defense and security reports to avoid "creating opportunities for enemies to exploit."

A preliminary military report in May had stated that no evidence of foul play or an attack was found. It noted that only 69 seconds elapsed between the last contact with the helicopter pilots and the crash, with no emergency status declared—a fact that raises more questions than it answers.

A second report from the High Commission investigating the crash emphasized that weather conditions on May 19 were reported as favorable for the flight. It also highlighted that the weather on the return route, according to the latest documents and testimonies from the pilots of the other helicopters, needs further examination.

In a nation already rife with internal tensions, the ambiguity surrounding Raisi's death—especially given his status as a potential successor to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei—has fueled widespread speculation. Among Iranians, both at home and abroad, conspiracy theories have proliferated, ranging from sabotage by a foreign entity to an inside job possibly orchestrated by Khamenei's son, Mojtaba.

The Islamic Republic's failure to provide a clear and transparent explanation for the crash and its contradictory statements have allowed conspiracy theories to gain traction, as Iranians search for answers in the absence of credible information from their government.