Iran pushes its stakes in Gaza ceasefire talks under Trump’s shadow

Iran seems to be indirectly involved in the Gaza ceasefire talks in Qatar, having threatened to attack Israel if a truce isn't reached to prevent its ally Hamas from facing military defeat.

Although Tehran was not attending the talks, Qatari prime minister, Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, spoke with Iran’s acting foreign minister Ali Bagheri-Kani to brief him on the first day of negotiations. Talks are continuing Friday, with some observers saying that a successful outcome will not be easy.

Iranian government-controlled media was largely silent about Tehran’s stance and role in the negotiations, limiting itself to brief reporting about the talks.

More attention was focused on what former US President Donald Trump and the Republican candidate in November said about Iran at a press conference he held at a golf club on Thursday.

Trump, in his typical fashion held out both a stick and a carrot for Tehran. “I'm not looking to be bad to Iran. We're going to be friendly I hope with Iran. Maybe but maybe not. But we're going to be friendly I hope we're going to be friendly, but they can't have a nuclear weapon…and we were all set to make sure that they don't.”

Iran’s Islamic regime insiders have been visibly nervous about Trump’s return, expecting him to be tough in enforcing sanctions. Trump has insisted that under his watch Tehran would not have had the financial resources to organize the October 7 attack on Israel. After he imposed crippling oil export sanctions in 2018, Iran’s main source of revenues dried up. Following President Joe Biden’s election, China began buying large shipments of Iranian oil, boosting Tehran’s exports from around 250,000 barrels per day in 2019-2020 to around 1.5 million currently. This has provided Iran with up to $60 billion in additional revenues.

Trump made it clear on Thursday that he will try to reduce the Chinese imports of Iranian oil. “I said to China and everybody else if you buy from Iran you can't do business in the United States and I'm not looking to be bad to Iran we're going to be friendly I hope with Iran maybe but maybe not but we're going to be friendly,” he said.

He once again emphasized that his main demand is major Iranian concessions over its nuclear program. “They can't have a nuclear weapon and we were all set to make sure that they don't have a nuclear weapon because once they do it's a whole different world it's a whole different negotiation.”

Iran has acted cautiously after the killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh last month in Tehran. Despite repeated threats to harshly retaliate against Israel, it has so far refrained from an escalation that could turn into a costly military conflict not only with Israel but also the United States.

Instead, it uses the threat of an attack on Israel to get concessions from the United States, which has committed itself to preventing a wider conflict. President Joe Biden has indicated that a Gaza ceasefire can prevent Iran's potential retaliation. This position appears to be a response to Iran’s repeated demands of a Gaza ceasefire, while Hamas is still holding around 100 Israeli hostages.

According to the Washington Post, Hezbollah will not launch any retaliation during the Gaza cease-fire talks to avoid being blamed for disrupting a potential agreement. 'The retaliation can wait; it is not urgent or has a time limit,' a source told the paper.

The fear of a wider war it cannot win was apparent in Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s remarks this week, when he urged his followers not to be intimidated by the perception of adversaries having superior military power. Khamenei condemned "enemy’s psychological warfare" aimed at forcing Iran to reconsider retaliation against Israel in the wake of Haniyeh’s assassination.