Iran’s future FM says nuclear deal broken, favors military-diplomatic path

Iran's foreign minister-designate has dismissed the 2015 JCPOA nuclear deal as irreparable, advocating instead for a strategy that blends military force with diplomacy, according to an Iranian MP.

Abbas Araghchi, who has openly aligned himself with IRGC values, firmly rooted in anti-Western and anti-Israel stances, is currently defending his proposed action plan in parliament, where he seeks approval as the nominated minister.

Speaking after Araghchi's parliamentary session, MP Mohsen Fathi quoted him as stating, "The JCPOA is beyond revival. In the new government, our focus is not on restoring the nuclear deal but on lifting the sanctions. We are dedicated to a strategy integrating diplomatic efforts with military strength."

It is not clear how Tehran wants to have the sanctions lifted without a nuclear agreement, unless Araghchi was referring to using diplomatic-military pressure on the United States.

In 2015, Iran and global powers signed the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) to limit Iran's nuclear activities for sanctions relief. In 2018, then-president Donald Trump withdrew, claiming it failed to address Iran's missile program. Since then, efforts to revive the JCPOA have involved indirect talks, with European diplomats mediating between US and Iranian officials.

Araghchi's remarks mirrored those of the outgoing Acting Foreign Minister Ali Bagheri-Kani who asserted in July that the primary objective of the JCPOA was lifting sanctions.

“We must concurrently pursue both the neutralization and the lifting of sanctions, drawing upon our experiences to refine our approach in future endeavors,” Bagheri-Kani said, suggesting the circumvention of sanctions as has been seen with Iran's illicit oil sales.

The JCPOA is set to expire in 2025 but Araghchi's assertion that the JCPOA is beyond salvage will come as no surprise at home or abroad. The Biden administration declined to resume nuclear talks with Iran under Masoud Pezeshkain's new leadership, citing Tehran's policy of supporting terrorism as a significant obstacle.

Fathi also quotes Araghchi as saying Iran’s foreign policy should be firmly oriented towards “securing the nation’s economic interests.”

“He asserted that economic diplomacy's core mandate is to facilitate global economic engagement by creating opportunities, setting strategic directions, and eliminating barriers to the country’s economic activities on the international stage,” Fathi said on Wednesday.

Tehran's increasingly assertive foreign policy, which appears to be yielding results, may be attributed to the perception of a more lenient stance by the Biden administration. Critics argue that this softer approach has allowed Iran's oil exports to surge, despite the ongoing sanctions.

Iran's oil exports have seen a considerable increase, from 400,000 barrels per day post-2019 US sanctions to over 1.5 million barrels per day currently.

Data from the analytics firm Kpler reveals a 30 percent increase in Iran's oil sales during the last quarter, propelling its fossil fuel exports to their highest level in five years.

However, as tensions rise over Iran's threats against Israel for the killing of Hamas political Leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, the US State Department is now considering stricter measures to curb Iran's oil exports, reflecting concerns about the broader implications of this financial flow.

In remarks to Politico, a US State Department spokesperson said on Tuesday, "As Iran continues to escalate regional tensions, we will collaborate with our partners to intensify pressure on Iran and curtail their oil exports."

The latest report from the US Office of the Director of National Intelligence accuses Iran of becoming ever bolder in boasting about its nuclear weapons as the chances of a return to the JCPOA nuclear deal look to be fading away.

"There has been a notable increase this year in Iranian public statements about nuclear weapons, suggesting the topic is becoming less taboo,” the report stated.

In May, Iranian MP Ahmad Bakhshayesh Ardestani said openly that Iran might already possess a nuclear weapon. It followed closely on the heels of remarks by Kamal Kharrazi, senior foreign policy advisor to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who had said that Tehran will change its nuclear doctrine if its archenemy Israel were to attack its atomic facilities.

As Iran exceeds 60 percent enrichment, the UN's nuclear chief, Rafael Grossi, said earlier this year that Iran could build a nuclear weapon in weeks, not months.