Iran bides its time, but reiterates right to retaliate against Israel

Iran has branded warnings from France, Britain, and Germany against attacking Israel as "illogical and excessive," asserting that it “doesn't need permission to retaliate" for the killing of Hamas's Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran.

On Monday, the leaders of France, Germany, and the UK issued a joint statement urging Iran and its allies to exercise restraint and avoid actions that could further inflame regional tensions or undermine efforts to secure a ceasefire in Gaza amid the war and facilitate the release of the remaining more than 100 hostages held by Iran-backed Hamas.

Nasser Kanaani, the spokesperson for Iran's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, asserted on Tuesday that the “apathy” of Western nations has enabled Israel to perpetrate "a myriad of international crimes, including genocide and war crimes," all while remaining "unpunished" referring to the Gaza war.

The latest statement warned Tehran and its network of regional militias that “They will bear responsibility for actions that jeopardize this opportunity for peace and stability.” Meanwhile, Iran-backed Hamas is threatening to boycott the latest round of ceasefire talks amid Iran's looming attack.

Also in a call on Monday, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer urged Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian to avoid attacking Israel, emphasizing that war serves no one's interests.

Pezeshkian reiterated Iran's right to retaliate, under pressure to publicly maintain the Supreme Leader's position, even though behind the scenes he too worries for the impact such an escalation would have inside Iran and has implored Ali Khamenei to rethink the operation.

Iran's President acknowledged that war is never in anyone's interest, yet affirmed the inherent right of nations to "punitive responses against an aggressor," according to the official news agency, IRNA.

In parallel, on Tuesday, Israel's Army Radio reported that Israel has recently conveyed to the US and several European nations that any direct aggression from Tehran would prompt an Israeli strike on Iranian territory.

The report, though unsourced, indicated that Israel underscored its determination to retaliate against Iran, even if no Israeli casualties result.

It is almost two weeks since Hamas's political leader Ismail Haniyeh was killed in Tehran. In April, it was also two weeks before Iran undertook its first direct attack on Israel following an alleged Israeli airstrike on the Iranian consulate in Syria.

Two IRGC commanders were killed along with several other senior figures, leading to a barrage of over 350 drones, rockets and missiles fired towards Israel. Israel and a US-led coalition intercepted the majority of the onslaught.

On Tuesday, Asghar Abbasgholizadeh, the commander of the Ashura Headquarters of the IRGC said, "On the surface, it seems too late for a response and revenge, but the enemy endures significant pressure by waiting. We are awaiting the command of the Supreme Leader, whether for patience and perseverance or retaliation."

Reuters reported on Tuesday that a potential ceasefire agreement in Gaza, emerging from anticipated talks this week, would deter Iran from directly retaliating against Israel for the assassination of Hamas's political leader.

Citing senior Iranian security officials, Reuters wrote that if the Gaza negotiations falter or if Iran perceives Israel as stalling, Iran, along with allies such as Hezbollah, is prepared to launch a direct attack. The sources did not specify how long Iran would wait for the talks to progress before taking action.

However, while it remains unclear if Hamas will attend the talks amid demands that Israel holds fire while they continue, a demand that Israel will not comply with, global powers remain keen to avert a crisis.