Tehran faces internal disputes as US and Israel brace for potential attack

As Monday, August 12, unfolded in the Middle East, there were no major military actions in the region, despite earlier media warnings that Iran was preparing a retaliatory strike.

In fact, Iranian government-controlled media, except echoing the reported Israeli warnings, were virtually silent about the issue of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh’s assassination almost two weeks earlier in Tehran, and avenging his killing by a punishing barrage of missiles against Israel.

Instead, the focus in Iran was on the fallout from former Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif’s resignation as "strategic deputy" to the newly elected President Masoud Pezeshkian. The political atmosphere in Tehran was tense, with a proposed cabinet dominated by long-time regime insiders and officials linked to intelligence and military sectors.

Meanwhile, the United States and Israel remained on high alert, wary of the potential for an Iranian attack coordinated with regional proxies like Hezbollah and the Houthis.

US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin went as far as publicly ordering the deployment of a guided missile submarine to the Middle East, the Pentagon said on Sunday. The presence and movements of submarines are usually kept secret unless a country wants to use the news as a deterrent factor against an adversary.

While the USS Georgia, a nuclear-powered submarine, was already in the Mediterranean Sea in July, according to a US military post on social media, it was a rare move to publicly announce the deployment of a submarine.

Meanwhile, Iran's acting Foreign Minister Ali Bagheri-Kani told his Chinese counterpart on Monday that Tehran has the "right to an appropriate and deterrent response" against Israel to ensure regional stability, according to state media.

In a joint statement on Monday, France, Germany and the United Kingdom expressed deep concerns by the heightened tensions in the region, calling on Iran and its allies to refrain from attacks that would further escalate regional tensions. "They will bear responsibility for actions that jeopardise this opportunity for peace and stability."

Israel's updated intelligence assessment is that Iran has decided to avenge Haniyeh's killing by launching a direct attack on Israel, which could happen within days, a Sunday report by Axios said citing informed sources.

"This is a change from the assessment of the last few days, which suggested that international pressure on Iran was restraining it from carrying out a direct attack against Israel," the report said.

In a statement after Austin spoke with his Israeli counterpart, the Pentagon said Austin had ordered the Abraham Lincoln strike group to accelerate its deployment to the region.

"Secretary Austin reiterated the United States’ commitment to take every possible step to defend Israel and noted the strengthening of US military force posture and capabilities throughout the Middle East in light of escalating regional tensions," the statement added.

The US military had already said it will deploy additional fighter jets and Navy warships to the Middle East as Washington seeks to bolster Israeli defenses.

Ismail Haniyeh, the political leader of Iran-backed Hamas, was assassinated in the Iranian capital Tehran on July 31, an attack that drew threats of revenge by Iran against Israel, which is fighting the Palestinian Islamist group in Gaza. Iran blamed Israel for the killing. Israel has not claimed responsibility.

The assassination and the killing of the senior military commander of the Iran-backed Lebanese group Hezbollah, Fuad Shukr, by Israel in a strike on Beirut, have fueled concern the conflict in Gaza was turning into a wider Middle East war.

Iran has said the US bears responsibility in the assassination of Haniyeh because of its support for Israel.

Several US and coalition personnel were wounded in a drone attack on Friday in Syria, in the second major attack in recent days against US forces amid soaring tensions in the Middle East.