Iran's Minister of Intelligence, Esmail Khatib, has been re-nominated to continue in his role under newly elected President Masoud Pezeshkian, despite being sanctioned twice by the United States.
On September 9, 2022, the US Treasury Department added him, along with the Ministry of Intelligence, to its sanctions list due to his involvement in cyber activities targeting the United States and its allies.
Shortly after this, Khatib was subject to another round of US sanctions on September 22, 2022. Alongside Iran’s Morality Police and its senior leaders, he was added to the US Treasury’s list of individuals for “being a person acting on behalf of the Government of Iran who is responsible for or complicit in, ordering, controlling, or otherwise directing, the commission of serious human rights abuses against persons in Iran or Iranian citizens or residents, or the family members of the foregoing, on or after June 12, 2009.”
He had been a vocal critic of the 2009 Green Movement protests, labeling them as "sedition" and praising the Islamic Republic's crackdown on dissent.
The Iranian Green Movement, led by Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi, emerged after Iran's 2009 presidential election and continued until early 2010. Protesters demanded the removal of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad from office, alleging that the election results were fraudulent.
Born in 1961, Khatib was a founding member of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) intelligence organization during the early 1980s. In 1991, he was appointed head of the Intelligence Office in Qom, operating under the alias Esmail Vaezi.
Following his tenure in Qom, Khatib was appointed head of security for Ali Khamenei, the Supreme Leader of Iran, in the city. He later moved to the judiciary, where he led the Judiciary’s Protection and Intelligence Center from 2012 to 2019.
Khatib’s tenure as minister of intelligence
Khatib was appointed Minister of Intelligence in August, 2021, under late President Ebrahim Raisi's administration. His leadership has seen a significant increase in the Ministry's budget, which he claims has enhanced Iran’s ability to counter Israel. He also boasted about dismantling what he described as a "Mossad infiltration network" responsible for assassinations and sabotage within Iran.
In spite of the massive budget, however, on July 31, following the new president's inauguration, Ismail Haniyeh, the head of Hamas' political bureau, was assassinated in Tehran.
Khatib attributed the attack to Israel, though Israel has not claimed responsibility, claiming it was carried out with US approval. Tehran continues to promise a harsh retaliation for the brazen attack on Iranian soil as global powers attempt to mediate.
Khatib has also addressed the threat posed by a "wandering ISIS" following the decline of the group in Syria, asserting that Iran's security agencies have successfully contained this danger.
"After the events in Syria subsided, we naturally faced a wandering ISIS that was directed toward us," he said last month, adding that "with the strategic planning of security agencies and the synergy developed within the security community, this threat was contained.
On January 3, during the fourth anniversary of the death of former IRGC commander Qasem Soleimani, two explosions in the southern city of Kerman resulted in 91 deaths and over 200 injuries. Khatib admitted to the failure of local security measures in what was the worst terror attack in the history of the Islamic Republic.
Following the explosions, Khatib said, "Despite all the efforts and actions of the Kerman provincial authorities and the members of the Provincial Security Council, we witnessed this tragic disaster and enemy plot, which caused us great embarrassment before the leader and the people."
In addition to crackdowns on dissidents, throughout his tenure, Khatib has repeatedly issued threats against Iran International, for reflecting news and views critical of the Islamic government. In November 2022, amid widespread protests in Iran, Khatib labeled the network a "terrorist organization" and warned that its journalists would be pursued by Iranian intelligence.
He reiterated these threats in September 2023, stating that Iran would take action against the network "whenever and wherever it deems necessary," despite international support for the media outlet.
Last year, the London offices of the network were forced to temporarily relocate to Washington as British security agency MI5 said it and the police services could no longer guarantee the safety of the staff.
Pouria Zeraati, the television host of the "Last Word" program on Iran International, was attacked by a group of unidentified individuals as he exited his residence in London in March as the threat continues.
While the motive is unclear, the attack came just a few months after a plot by the Iranian regime to kill 2 other Iran International journalists was revealed.
General Joseph Votel retired four-star US Army General and commander of US Centcom from March 2016 to 2019 and now Senior Fellow on National Security at MEI, and Firas Maksad Senior Director for Strategic Outreach and Senior Fellow, MEI were the speakers. They laid out the implications of the most recent rise in hostilities between Israel and Iran and its affiliated proxies. Also discussed were scenarios of Israel's strategic assessments, the risk of the US being drawn into a broader regional conflict, and the aftermath of Haniyeh's death on Hamas' future.
In his opening comments Firas Maksad said: “Israel has successfully gained escalation dominance in this conflict; essentially projecting out to the world and warring parties that it is ready to take the next step up the escalatory ladder, should it come to it. Iran and Hezbollah have lost quite a bit of their deterrence, as their response on April 13th was not enough to pause,” he added: “I think in fact the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been quite successful in putting both Iran and Hezbollah in a Catch 22 type situation. A policy dilemma.”
Maksad described the closing ring on fire that Iran and its proxies have established around Israel and that it is very real. This is a strategic argument that can be made for a war by Israel. Politically, Netanyahu is embattled, his political future hangs in the balance and many in Israel will say that [Netanyahu] doesn’t have much of an interest in reaching a ceasefire with Hamas in Gaza and he is at odd with most of his intelligence and security chiefs who believe that a deal can be had.” He added: “The answer to the million-dollar question as to whether Netanyahu is looking for a broader war; there are many reasons and justifications as to why the answer to that might be yes.”
He outlined three potential scenarios:
1. Limited Response: The least likely scenario involves a coordinated but fairly limited response from Iran and Hezbollah. Back-channel diplomacy, such as efforts by the Jordanian prime minister, has emphasized de-escalation and warned Tehran that Jordan would prohibit the passage of Iranian missiles and drones through its airspace. Saudi Arabia has reportedly conveyed a similar message to Iran.
2. Escalated Conflict from Lebanon: The second scenario, which may be the most likely, involves increased missile fire from Lebanon. Given Lebanon's proximity to Israel, this incoming fire would be harder to block. Hezbollah possesses over 1,000 missiles, many equipped with precision-guided kits, and the US and its allies might not have the same advance warning as they did on April 13. In this case, Israel would likely retaliate strongly, potentially launching a major operation into Lebanon.
3. Wider Regional Conflict: The third and most catastrophic scenario involves Iran following through on its repeated promises to defend Hezbollah if Israel launches a major offensive. Hezbollah is Iran’s most significant foreign investment, with over 40 years and billions of dollars spent on arming, training, and equipping what is considered the most formidable non-state military actor in the world. As Hezbollah serves as a first line of defense for Iran's nuclear program, this scenario could lead to a much broader and more devastating conflict.
In his opening comments Votel pointed out that US influence in the region has diminished which is not unexpected. He explained: “Our desire to put more focus on the Pacific and to reduce our presence in the Middle East which was done to large extent through cessation of operations in Afghanistan, Iraq and Syria, though there are still 2500 troops on in the region.”
He emphasized that Iran’s response will not be limited to actions in the Levant and that the IRGC’s global network can exact costs in other parts of the world.
Maksad argued that Hezbollah does not want to see an escalation of the conflict. Given the events of the last week, Lebanon is no longer a secondary front and in danger of becoming the primary front. He explained that there are many reasons why Hezbollah does not want to fight a head on war with Israel. The most important reason being that Hezbollah’s primary sponsor does not want to see it spent in such a war and wants to keep that power in case of any potential Israeli attack on Iran proper. Lebanon is still staggering from the financial collapse of 2019 and the Shia community in Lebanon does not want to see a war that could be devastating for Beirut being fought for Palestinians and Hamas.
A viewer asked: What are the chances and the consequences of the war spreading to the entire region and the GCC, impacting energy flow through the strait of Hormuz. Votel replied saying that it will certainly impact shipping, market and insurance prices and will have an overall decrease of the movement of goods out of the region.
Maksad and Votel who have recently returned from touring countries in the region, including the CENTCOM facilities in the area. Maksad argued that it is unescapable for the GCC countries not to be impacted. According to Maksad, Saudi Arabia is laser focused on Yemen, the Houthis and their participation in any forthcoming escalation. The regional countries have done their utmost to sit this war out which is very difficult for them. The Red Sea is vital and so much of what the Crown Prince Mohammad Bin Salman, envisioned, into turning the country into a logistical trade hub by 2030 whose logistical trade is around the Red Sea through which 15% of the global commerce goes through. The UAE, Qatar, Saudi Arabia are firm US partners and allies, but they cannot continue to hedge if the issue expands into the Persian Gulf as well.
Maksad argued that if the reports of the their readiness of providing Iran with a significant air defense as possible, such as the S400 to help defend against incoming Israeli attacks, will underscore what many including Maksad and Votel have said all along to the Biden administration which is it is not possible to push back against Russia and the rise of China and not be involved in the Middle East. Russia is stepping back in in a significant way and this will give credence to not only the Israeli argument but other American allies in the region, that America needs to be more involved.