Iran appears close to escalating the ongoing conflict with Israel into a full-blown regional war, with Israeli media reports pointing to an imminent attack on Israel despite earlier assessments that Tehran might be reconsidering the plan.
Since the July 31 assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, Iran has been threatening to avenge his death by attacking Israel. However, media reports over the past few days pointed to internal disagreements in Iran over the dangerous escalation. There were also reports that Iran is thinking twice, following pressures by the Biden administration.
However, Israel's updated intelligence assessment is that Iran has decided to avenge Haniyeh's killing by launching a direct attack on Israel, which could happen within days, a Sunday report by Axios said citing informed sources.
"This is a change from the assessment of the last few days, which suggested that international pressure on Iran was restraining it from carrying out a direct attack against Israel," the report said.
The assassination of Haniyeh has become a flashpoint in the already volatile region. While Israel has neither confirmed nor denied its involvement, both Iran and Hamas have blamed Israel for the killing. This accusation has fueled fears that the conflict between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip could spiral into a wider war, dragging other regional players into the fray.
The Israeli public broadcaster, Kann News, reported on Sunday that the prevailing understanding within the Israeli security establishment is that Iran is "determined to launch an attack soon."
While the attack's timing is not yet clear, the Axios report says it may happen before August 15, when talks were supposed to be held between Hamas and Israel over a ceasefire and the release of Israeli hostages.
However, Hamas said in a statement on Sunday it refuses to participate in the hostage deal negotiations on August 15.
Hamas's statement is "a tactical move ahead of a possible attack by Iran and Hezbollah and in an attempt to get better terms for the deal," an Israeli official told Axios. "If Hamas won't come to the table, we will continue decimating their forces in Gaza."
The Hezbollah factor
Adding to the tension is the involvement of Hezbollah, Iran's proxy in Lebanon. According to a CNN report, Israeli intelligence believes that Hezbollah may launch an attack on Israel as early as August 12, with Iran possibly following up with a second wave of strikes shortly thereafter.
Despite suffering heavy losses in the ongoing conflict, including nearly 400 fighters and commanders killed by Israeli strikes, Hezbollah has shown no signs of backing down. In fact, the group whose senior military commander Fuad al-Shukr was recently assassinated by the IDF has only intensified its attacks on northern Israel, expanding its list of targets to include towns that had previously been spared.
Israel's preparedness
In an unusual public statement, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) spokesperson clarified that despite the recent reports regarding Iran’s plans, there has been no change in the directives from the Home Front Command. However, the IDF and other security establishments remain on high alert, closely monitoring developments in Iran and Hezbollah.
Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, speaking to new IDF troops, issued a stern warning on Sunday: "Whoever will harm us in a way that he has not acted in the past, is also likely to get hit by us in a way that we have not acted in the past. These are things we don't want but we need to prepare for them, and they may happen."
Tehran's dangerous game
Despite the warnings and ongoing diplomatic efforts to de-escalate the situation, Iran seems determined to press ahead with its plans. According to an exclusive report by Iran International, President Masoud Pezeshkian recently met with Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei to plead against direct military action on Israel, warning of catastrophic retaliation that could cripple Iran's already fragile economy. Yet, Khamenei appears undeterred, signaling a willingness to risk economic collapse and potential downfall in pursuit of his regional agenda.
This latest development marks a dangerous shift from the shadow war that has characterized Iran-Israel relations for years to open confrontation. On the evening of April 13, Iran launched an unprecedented assault on Israel, deploying over 300 cruise and ballistic missiles, along with drones; however, almost all of them were intercepted by a US-led coalition. Israel's response was swift and decisive, targeting a military base in Isfahan on April 19, a clear demonstration of its capability and willingness to retaliate against Iranian aggression.
However, the Israeli intelligence community's assessment confirms threats by Iranian military officials that Tehran's new strike will be "harsher" than the April attack.
