Hamas to strengthen alliance with Iran under new leadership

Yahya Sinwar, Hamas's leader in the Gaza Strip and now its political chief, has vowed to never cut ties with Iran as he takes over from assassinated political leader Ismail Haniyeh.

In a speech to Palestinian youth in Gaza, Sinwar said, "we will never cut our relations with Iran and other parties."

Iran is one of Hamas's biggest sponsors, funding the group designated by countries including the UK and US with at least $100m a year. Iran also gives Hamas military training, weapons and strategic support.

Sinwar, the architect of the October 7 atrocities in which over 1,100 mostly civilians were murdered in Israel, asserted that no force could disarm Hamas, explicitly rejecting any notion of peace talks that would lead to the recognition of Israel.

Al-Mayadeen News Network reported him as saying, "We are fighters for the liberation of Palestine and revolutionaries for granting freedom to our nation. We fight against the occupiers according to human rights laws and will continue to strengthen our military power to protect our people."

Haniyeh, assassinated in Tehran last week, had personally cultivated the deep ties with Iran all the way up to its Supreme Leader, since taking the political helm in 2017.

Unlike Haniyeh, who lived between Turkey and Qatar, Sinwar is in hiding in Gaza's 5,000km network of tunnels and unable to undertake the high level meetings afforded to Haniyeh, who on the day of his assassination boasted of his freedom of movement.

Iran’s involvement with Hamas is part of a strategic partnership aimed at extending Tehran’s influence across the Middle East and also part of the Supreme Leader's plan to eradicate the Jewish state, Iran's archenemy.

Iran is reluctant to engage in a war with Israel due to its severe economic challenges in spite of the brazenness of the assassination on Iranian soil which has brought embarrassment to Tehran's security apparatus.

Within the past week, Iranian officials have upped the ante and threatened to take definitive revenge for the assassination of the Hamas leader. However, warnings by world powers and a recent report of internal strife between the newly elected President Masoud Pezeshkian and Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei suggest that Iran has seemingly backed down from its harsh rhetoric of revenge.

In a recent meeting with Supreme Leader Khamenei, President Pezeshkian urged the 85-year-old ruler to prevent any direct Iranian attack on Israel to avoid escalating tensions into an unwanted war, informed sources told Iran International. Pezeshkian warned that such a conflict could severely disrupt his presidency and lead to significant problems at home.

Pezeshkian cautioned that an Israeli decision to launch harsh retaliatory attacks against Iran's national infrastructure and energy resources could cripple the Iranian economy and potentially lead to the country's collapse in a time when the government faces immense challenges to its legitimacy.

According to a report by Politico on Wednesday, Iran may be rethinking launching a multi-pronged attack on Israel, US officials say. The Biden administration has in recent days worked through diplomatic channels, bringing in its Middle East allies to lobby Tehran to reconsider moving forward with a military attack on Israel. They’ve warned Iran that a massive strike would only inflame tensions and risk a direct confrontation between the two countries, two senior US officials said.

However, with Iran's proxies surrounding Israel, there are now increasing chances that military retaliation will come from one of Iran's militant groups such as Hezbollah in Lebanon or the Houthis in Yemen.

US officials have sent messages to Tehran through various intermediaries that if the attack that killed Haniyeh was caused by a covert Israeli operation and did not kill any Iranian citizens, then Iran should reevaluate its plan to launch a military attack on Israel.

The officials said they now think Tehran has recalibrated with the US not expecting an attack on Israel imminently.

However, the talk from Tehran remains defiant. Iran’s permanent mission to the UN said in a statement on Wednesday, “We have pursued two priorities simultaneously: first, establishing a durable cease-fire in Gaza and the withdrawal of the occupiers from this territory; second, punishing the aggressor for the assassination of martyr Haniyeh."

Retired diplomat Qasem Mohebbali warned that “any retaliation causing fatalities could lead to serious conflict. In such a war, Israel will not be alone, and the entire West, led by the US, will support Israel."

He told Roydad24 on Thursday that a potential war would bring back UN sanctions and create harsher conditions domestically. He says, "The JCPOA and nuclear agreement are still in limbo. We must accept our commitment to a peaceful nuclear program as an NPT member. The only way is to reach an agreement with the West, the IAEA, and the US and avoid war."

He said that Iran should neither be "influenced by regional extremist groups" or fall "into the criminal Israeli government's trap".

He said, "These governments thrive on war. For a secure Iran, we need a secure Middle East."