Canadian Iranian journalist and documentary filmmaker
As the region braces for Iran’s retaliatory attack on Israel, experts specializing in Iran are not seeing a clear picture into the definite meaning behind Egypt instructing all its airlines to avoid Iranian airspace for a specific amount of time on a specific day.
The Egyptian NOTAM, a safety notice issued to pilots and aviation authorities, said Iran’s airspace must be avoided on Thursday from 0100 to 0400 GMT, according to Reuters.
Egypt’s Civil Aviation Ministry reportedly said the notice came after Iran warned all airlines flying over the Iranian territories about 'military exercises' on Wednesday and Thursday.
However, Iran has not issued a NOTAM for its entire airspace, and just warned pilots against flying below 12,000 feet, which is below cruising altitude of civilian airlines, in western Iran.
What prompted the Egyptian notice has not been revealed amid a looming war between Iran and Israel after the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran last week. Israel has not officially claimed responsibility, but the Iranian government is blaming its adversary.
On X, the OPS group, a membership organization that shares information about international flight operations, wrote "such a NOTAM from Egypt is very unusual. It is possible that this is an indicator of an Iranian response to Israel, and in turn a potentially large set of air space disruptions - at the same time, there may be another reason."
Is this the window of attack?
Many are left wondering if this could be the window that Iran will use to retaliate against Israel?
Experts advise caution on reaching conclusions just yet. The answer, they said, is not a simple yes or no, but rather a myriad of reasons.
"No one has a clear sense of Iran's timing for a response," said Bessma Momani, a Professor of Political Science at the University of Waterloo in Canada.
Momani said it would be be highly unusual for Iran to share information of a potential strike on Israel with Egypt.
"Regional actors are trying to get prepared and to signal their preparedness but I doubt Egypt would be privy to any information on when or if Iran and its allies plan on responding to Israel with a military attack," she added.
"Cordial but not warm," is how Momani described Egypt-Iran relations. Momani is also a Senior fellow at the Centre for International Governance and Innovation (CIGI) and sits on the National Security Transparency Advisory Group to advise the government of Canada.
Jason Brodsky, the policy director of United Against Nuclear Iran, said the specific time and date of the NOTAM doesn't necessarily indicate a potential launch of strikes.
He said in past operations, the Islamic Republic has launched missiles and drones from western Iran.
"I thought it was a very specific window of time, but it could mean a lot of different things. It could mean a military drill. It could mean preparations for an attack. There are a lot of different ways to interpret it, so it's hard to know," said Brodsky.
The Egyptian NOTAM is not the only notice related to Iran-Israel tensions. Jordan has also asked all airlines landing at its airports to carry 45 minutes of reserve fuel amid heightened tensions between Iran and Israel.
The UK also issued a NOTAM advising UK-registered air operators to avoid entering the Beirut Flight Information Region (the Lebanese airspace) from 16:40 (UTC) August 7, 2024, to November 4, 2024, due to potential risks from military activity in the region.
The NOTAM comes amid escalating fears of a conflict between Israel and Iran, which could involve Lebanon, particularly through the involvement of Iran-backed Hezbollah.
