How and when will Iran retaliate for Haniyeh's assassination?

Reports suggest that Iran's response to the killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran this week could involve multiple attacks by its proxies and Iran itself, possibly targeting civilians, as early as this weekend.

Retaliation is further fueled by the fact that, less than 24 hours before Haniyeh's assassination, Israel announced—and Hezbollah confirmed—the killing of Hezbollah's senior military commander, Fuad Shukr, in an Israeli airstrike on a Beirut suburb.

According to AFP, Iran and its allied armed groups are preparing coordinated actions intended to “deter Israel while avoiding full-scale war.”

On Wednesday, Iranian officials convened in Tehran with representatives from the "Axis of Resistance" — a collection of proxy forces financed and armed by Iran - to deliberate on retaliation.

A source close to the Lebanese group disclosed to AFP that two scenarios were discussed: a simultaneous response from Iran and militia groups, or a staggered reaction from each party. This source, who had been briefed on the meeting, requested anonymity due to the sensitive nature of the information.

Iran's Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, has threatened "harsh punishment" for Haniyeh's killing, which the group attributes to Israel, and has vowed revenge.

A leader of the Islamic Resistance of Iraq, a coalition of pro-Iran groups, informed AFP that "Iran will lead the initial response with the participation of Iraqi, Yemeni, and Syrian factions, targeting military objectives. This will be followed by a second wave of attacks from Hezbollah."

The source further indicated that Hezbollah might target civilians to avenge the deaths of three women and two children in the strike that killed Shukr in Beirut.

CNN, citing US officials, reported that the response might include attacks on US forces in Iraq and Syria by Iranian-backed proxy militias in the region. For months, these militias launched numerous attacks on US forces in the Middle East. Still, these largely subsided after the US retaliated to a drone attack that killed three US service members in Jordan in January. Officials suggest that Iran could instruct these groups to resume firing on US forces.

Israeli media outlet Ynet reported that Israelis are anticipating attacks as early as Saturday, following Haniyeh's funeral in Qatar on Friday. They are on high alert and preparing for a "broad attack" by Tehran and its proxies.

"The assumption is that a significant response could come from multiple fronts in the coming days, potentially coordinated by Iran with all its proxies: Hezbollah, the Houthis, and militias in Syria and Iraq," Ynet wrote on Thursday.