Details surrounding the operation that led to the killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran remain unclear. Neither Iran nor Israel, which is suspected of being behind the operation, has provided specifics.
Yet, there are numerous reports that may provide clues for experts to speculate on how the operation was carried out – and whether it involved advanced weaponry or a sophisticated drone strike.
Where and when?
In one of its statements, the IRGC announced that the attack resulting in Haniyeh's death occurred at two in the morning and stated that he was killed by "a projectile from the air" while stationed at one of the "special residences for war veterans in northern Tehran."
Hours later, the Iran-aligned Lebanese network Al-Mayadeen reported that the missile used to attack Haniyeh's residence was launched not from within Iran, but from another country.
Since then, however, Israel’s Channel 12 reported that Iranian officials were coming to the conclusion that the projectile was actually fired from within the country’s borders.
Where did Haniyeh reside in Tehran?
Although the Iranian state’s Fars news agency reported that Haniyeh was staying at a special residence for war veterans in northern Tehran, little is known about the building.
Some unofficial sources inside Iran, have suggested that Haniyeh could have been killed near the Saadabad Palace – a historic royal complex located in the northern part of Iran’s capital. Boasting hundreds of acres, the complex has been used by the Islamic Republic for various official events for many years.
Some reports have also suggested that the Basij al-Zahra camp in the northwest of this complex was Haniyeh’s residence.
During President Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani's administration, leading up to the Islamic Summit Conference in Tehran in 1991, a building was reportedly constructed at Saadabad Palace to accommodate special guests. This facility might have been used to host distinguished visitors, although specific details about Haniyeh’s residence there are not well-documented.
Was there an explosion?
Some local witnesses reported hearing an explosion in the Saadabad area early Wednesday morning.
State-run media outlet Tejarat Online published a story that suggested that the explosion's sound was "so loud that it triggered all the car alarms and was heard throughout northern Tehran, with smoke and dust from the explosion covering the area."
According to sources connected to Hamas, the building targeted in the attack was also occupied by his bodyguard, Ziad Nakhalah, the leader of Islamic Jihad, along with a Hamas delegation.
So far, however, there have been no reports indicating that these individuals were harmed.
In addition, no reports have emerged about other residents of the building being injured, leaving the door open to assume that despite the precision of any operation to kill Haniyeh, the explosion's power and intensity were likely limited.
Missile vs drone?
Although the IRGC's statement referred to "a projectile from the air," the origin of the projectile remains unclear.
Sky News Arabia reported that based on its Iranian sources, that the building Haniyeh was in, was targeted by a missile fired from a nearby building.
Aerial projectiles can be launched from either fighter jets or military drones. For such strikes, military aircraft would typically utilize the airspace of neighboring countries. While using the airspace of other countries without authorization and conducting operations near border areas is challenging, it is not impossible.
In Israel’s April attack on the 8th Tactical Airbase in Isfahan, American officials confirmed that Israeli aircraft launched three missiles from outside Iran's borders targeting a radar site protecting the Natanz nuclear facility. Iranian officials, however, attributed the incident to enemy drones at this military base.
According to Israeli Channel 14 military correspondent Hallel Bitton Rosen, however, the attack was not carried out by launching a missile, but with another weapon that exploded close to him.
Drawing on Israel’s past operations, the country has a history of conducting drone attacks on Iranian soil.
In February 2023, the Wall Street Journal reported that Israel was responsible for a drone attack on a Defense Ministry workshop complex in Isfahan and an explosion at a munitions center in the city. Iranian officials described the attack as "unsuccessful" and stated that it caused only limited damage.
What are some experts saying?
Israel has not claimed responsibility for the attack, but one Israeli and two US officials told Axios that Israel was behind the strike.
About two hours before Haniyeh’s death, Richard Goldberg, a senior advisor at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, appeared to allude to the attack, saying "The Israeli Air Force is demonstrating its range tonight."
After the news of the killing of the Hamas leader broke, Goldberg, in reference to Israel striking Iran previously, posted on X: "If you can hit a radar next to a nuclear site, you can hit a house in Tehran. Ayatollah is exposed."
Major Andrew Fox, a researcher at the Jackson Institute and a former British paratrooper, told Iran International English that the attack might have been carried out with a missile launched from outside Iran. According to him, the Caspian Sea, given its proximity to Tehran, is a suitable option for this operation.
Fox, drawing on his experience and emphasizing that such missiles are guided with precise laser technology, said: "A soldier on the ground targets the laser pointer exactly at the point where he wants the missile to hit, guiding the missile to the impact point."
The expert also noted that Israel has missiles designed to use the kinetic energy from the speed and weight of the warhead for lethality. This explains why, in some missile attacks, fewer casualties and less noise are observed compared to those with explosive warheads.
Ronen Solomon, an Israeli intelligence and security analyst, highlighted the proximity of Baku and Tel Aviv, as well as Azerbaijan’s common border with Iran. He suggested that the use of Azerbaijani airspace for the attack is highly likely due to the short distance and the presence of Israeli weapons in the region.
