Soccer field bloodshed stokes fears of Israel-Hezbollah full-fledged war

A rocket strike on a soccer field in Golan Heights on Saturday killed at least 11 people, including children and teenagers. Israeli authorities have blamed Lebanon's Iran-backed Hezbollah for the attack, raising fears of a broader regional conflict.

Hezbollah quickly denied any involvement in the attack. Mohammed Afif, Hezbollah's chief spokesman, told The Associated Press that the group "categorically denies carrying out an attack on Majdal Shams", a Druze village in Israeli-controlled Golan Heights.

However, the Israeli military says the rocket used in the attack was “a Falaq-1 rocket, an Iranian rocket, manufactured in Iran, a rocket with a warhead of over 50 kilograms of explosives."

Speaking in a press conference, Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari, the Israeli military's chief spokesman called it a "very serious" incident and promised to act accordingly.

"Hezbollah fired a rocket at children playing soccer in northern Israel. It then lied and claimed they did not carry out the attack," said Hagari. He noted it was the deadliest assault on Israeli civilians since the October 7 Hamas attack that ignited the war in Gaza.

Middle East affairs expert Menashe Amir told Iran International, "It was tolerable over the past 10 months as long as Hezbollah only sent a single rocket, missile, mortar, or drone, even in cases where minor damage was caused, and even when one person, whether military or civilian, was killed. But today, two horrific incidents have occurred that have put Israel at a crossroads."

"One was an attack on a gas field in the Mediterranean Sea, and much worse, was an attack on a soccer field that led to the deaths of 10 Druze children. They were Arab Druze to whom Israel had granted citizenship. This is what has put Israel at a crossroads, compelling it to respond," Amir said.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who was visiting the United States, announced he would cut his trip short in response to the attack. He said he was “shocked” to see the attack, pledging that Israel will “not let this pass in silence.”

“Among the murdered were small children who were playing soccer,” Netanyahu said in a video statement, “and others were also other murdered. Our hearts are all broken by these sights.”

Iran’s reaction

Mojtaba Amani, Iran’s ambassador to Lebanon, referred to the deadly attack on Majdal Shams and said, "We do not expect Israel to start a war against Lebanon and the region; considering the balance of power, we believe the likelihood of such an event is very low."

Mohsen Rezaei, a former chief-commander of the Revolutionary Guard, also wrote on X that “Netanyahu, out of desperation or madness, believes that by starting an adventure in Lebanon, he can escape the quagmire of Gaza; however, he is stepping towards a deeper and more formidable quagmire.”

Since its establishment in 1979, Iran's Islamic government has been a staunch adversary of Israel and the United States. In the early 1980s, it established Hezbollah in Lebanon as a proxy force to confront Israel. Over the past two decades, Iran has created additional proxy forces in Iraq, Syria, Yemen, and the Palestinian territories. Furthermore, it has developed networks across other Middle Eastern, African, and Western countries.

International reactions

Lebanon's government, while not specifically mentioning Majdal Shams, called for an "immediate cessation of hostilities on all fronts" and condemned all attacks on civilians.

The attack also sparked shock and fear among American politicians, with several House Representatives blaming Iran for the bloodshed. Maryland Congressman Steny Hoyer stated that the attack on Majdal Shams "is further evidence that Israelis are under siege by Iran and its proxies including Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis.

He also called it "another example of the Iran-sponsored reign of terror in the north of Israel where tens of thousands have been displaced since 10/7."

House Representative Lois Frankel condemned the attack on X, saying, "Israel remains under constant threat from Iran and its proxies. We must continue to stand by our ally as she defends herself from terror."

New York Representative Anthony D’Esposito also blamed Iran, stating, "The USA must stand resolutely behind Israel and reject the aggression of Iran and their terror proxies like Hezbollah and Hamas."

In 2018, the US government reported that Iran provides Hezbollah with an estimated $700 million annually. Earlier, in 2016, Hezbollah's leader, Hassan Nasrallah, publicly stated in a speech that his organization’s funding comes directly from Iran.

This funding supports Hezbollah’s extensive military capabilities, which include an arsenal of approximately 150,000 missiles and rockets aimed at Israel. The financial support from Iran allows Hezbollah to maintain its militant activities and exert considerable influence in Lebanon and beyond.

The bigger picture

Saturday's attack coincides with negotiations between Israel and Hamas regarding a potential cease-fire to end the nearly 10-month conflict and secure the release of approximately 110 hostages held in Gaza. The war began with a surprise Hamas attack on October 7, which killed around 1,200 people and led to Israel's retaliatory offensive, resulting in over 39,000 deaths, according to Hamas health authorities.

The Saturday rocket strike follows earlier cross-border violence between Israel and the Lebanon-based Shia militia on Saturday, where Hezbollah reported the deaths of three fighters. Israel’s military confirmed an airstrike on a Hezbollah arms depot in the border village of Kfar Kila, indicating militants were present at the time.

Israel and Hezbollah have also been exchanging fire since October 8. Recent months have seen increased cross-border violence, with Israeli airstrikes and Hezbollah's rocket and drone attacks reaching deeper into each other's territories.

Since October, Israeli airstrikes in Lebanon have killed more than 450 people, primarily Hezbollah members, along with about 90 civilians and non-combatants. On the Israeli side, 44 people have been killed, including at least 21 soldiers.

Looking forward

As the situation escalates, Israel faces critical decisions on how to respond to the latest attack. Menashe Amir believes the potential for a severe military reaction against Hezbollah or even broader targets in Lebanon is high. However, such actions carry the risk of sparking an all-out war, with devastating consequences for the entire region.

“If Israel now enters an all-out war with Hezbollah, the militant group has long-range precision missiles capable of launching severe, deadly, and destructive attacks on numerous locations within Israel. Israel has no choice but to respond with a crushing reaction, which could, however, escalate into a full-scale war," Amir said.

Another critical question is the potential response from Hezbollah's main sponsor, Iran. If Tehran gets engaged in the war, "the consequences of such a conflict for the Middle East would be extremely destructive. Hezbollah's precision missiles can target many areas within Israel, while Israel's powerful air force can devastate numerous areas inside Lebanon,” Amir told Iran International.