The rapid escalation of anti-Afghan sentiments in Iran in recent weeks and demands to expel millions of Afghans may be one of the most urgent problems facing the newly elected President Masoud Pezeshkian.

Some activists, politicians, and social media users in Iran warn that the unprecedented rise of such sentiments could entail serious violence against migrants and turn into a major security problem.

Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf, one of the six candidates in the recent snap presidential elections, promised in his campaign speeches and debates to build walls along Iran's borders with Afghanistan and Pakistan to stop the influx of migrants and to expel “all illegal immigrants”.

Pezeshkian, too, promised that his future government would block the borders to end the influx of migrants, register those who are already in Iran, and negotiate with European countries to either accept some of them as refugees or pay Iran for some of the costs for hosting them.

He argued that the West had to accept responsibility for its actions in Afghanistan which he said had caused millions of Afghans to seek refuge in Iran. “There is no reason the Iranian people must pay the costs of the wrong policies of others,” he said in a series of tweets before the elections.

Ultra-hardliner Saeed Jalili who lost the runoff vote to Pezeshkian, however, avoided taking a clear stance on the matter. Jalili’s supporters accuse Ghalibaf and his supporters of inciting “Afghan phobia”. There have been allegations that some Afghans played an active role in Jalili’s campaign and promoted him on social media.

Jalili and other ultra-hardliners largely support the policies of the late President Ebrahim Raisi’s government which was accused of supporting an “open borders” policy with a hidden agenda.

They often highlight the role of the Afghan Hazara Fatemiyoun Brigade which was organized and trained by the Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) to fight in Syria. There have been allegations that they want to bolster Iran’s military by recruiting more young Shiite Hazara Afghans.

Some critics allege that authorities under Raisi actively encouraged the growth of the Afghan population with incentives such as subsidized energy and food to remedy Iran's problem of population decline.

Those who demand the “expulsion” of Afghans accuse the government of letting them benefit from billions of dollars in food, fuel, and other subsidies. The influx of perhaps more than six million Afghans in the past three years has pushed up housing costs by increasing demand in the market, and taking jobs from Iranians.

There have also been widespread but unsubstantiated rumors that migrants are spreading various infectious diseases among Iranians including a claim refuted by health officials that leprosy is spreading in Iran due to Afghan migration.

Anti-Afghan sentiments are hugely promoted in Persian language social media with several dedicated hashtags including “Expulsion of Afghans is a national demand”.

Campaigners for the expulsion of Afghans who have also launched an online petition often highlight crimes allegedly committed by migrants including murder, rape, and child abduction.

Some campaigners for the expulsion of Afghans who also oppose the clerical rule in Iran are accused of expressing racist and ultra-nationalistic views on social media.

There have also been reports of indiscriminate aggressive behavior towards Afghans, irrespective of their residence status. There are also some reports of signs of “No Afghan entry” being displayed by real-estate agents.

A recent video clip on social media shows a young woman in a Tehran subway forcing an elderly Afghan woman to give up her seat, sparking widespread debate online.

Iranian media report that the Afghan population has overtaken Iranians in some deprived areas in and around the capital and other major cities as well as some smaller cities and towns.

Iran's Supreme National Security Council (SNSC) banned Afghans from living in 16 provinces in April 2023.

Afghans first came to Iran as refugees in the early 1980s and later as economic migrants, but their numbers rarely rose above two million before the Taliban takeover of the government in Afghanistan in 2021. Around 780,000 have refugee status and are not considered illegals.

The 2016 census found the presence of over 1.5 million Afghans in Iran. Officials admit that the number of Afghans has hugely increased since then. There are unsubstantiated claims that there may be as many as 15 million Afghans in Iran now.