In the first debate among Iran’s presidential candidates, hardliners denied the impact of nuclear-related sanctions, while two candidates said improving international ties is crucial for fixing the economy.
The three-hour long debate on Monday among six hand-picked candidates was focused on “controlling inflation and growth of production”. Three of the five televised debates planned before the June 28 elections will focus on economy. The next debate is scheduled for June 20.
In the debates and interviews, former nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili, incumbent Mayor of Tehran Alireza Zakani, and hardliner Amir-Hossein Ghazizadeh-Hashemi defended the “achievements” of Raisi’s administration. They faced opposition from pro-reform Masoud Pezeshkian, moderate-conservative Mostafa Pourmohammadi, and at times Parliament Speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf, who criticized the administration's performance in veiled terms.
Hardliner candidates are acutely aware of the Raisi administration's disastrous economic performance, yet they refuse to take responsibility for it and sometimes even praise it, according to France-based journalist Seraj Mirdamadi. “But they blame [the pro-reform Masoud] Pezeshkian unfairly for the performance of [Hassan] Rouhani’s government.”
Speaking in vague and difficult to understand terms, Jalili, insisted that sanctions did not matter, and that the state of the economy could be improved by relying on “domestic potentials,” an argument often made by loyalists of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. According to him, an economic growth rate of eight percent as prescribed by the 7th Development Plan is feasible, while others argue that tens of billions of dollars is needed to achieve such a high rate.
Ghalibaf, however, prescribed negotiations to lift the sanctions if for every step that Iran took, presumably to limit its nuclear program, the Western side was prepared to provide adequate incentives in return.
Ghalibaf has been criticized for calling the removal of sanctions a priority for his government, while the parliament in December 2020 under his leadership approved a bill hardening Iran’s negotiating position. “Why did you approve the catastrophic ‘Strategic Action Plan to Lift the Sanctions’ to prevent the revival of the JCPOA?” reformist commentator Abbas Abdi asked Ghalibaf in a tweet.
The December 2020 legislation called for reducing Iran's commitments under the 2015 nuclear deal and obliged the government to escalate the nuclear crisis.
All of the four hardliners, including Ghalibaf, insist that the sanctions are “unfair” and “cruel” but also argue that Iran has succeeded in circumventing them and is selling its oil without much trouble.
In a tweet after the debates, political commentator Reza Nasri contended that hardliners’ claims were contradictory. “How can sanctions which ‘are not a problem anymore’ and have been neutralized be ‘cruel’ at the same time?” he asked.
However, there is a major divide between Ghalibaf and Jalili who is the candidate of ultra-hardliners. Their supporters have been highly intolerant of each other, insisting that one must withdraw in favor of the other to ensure the presidency remains within the "revolutionary front."
Zakani and Ghazizadeh-Hashemi, neither of whom has a realistic chance of winning, appeared to play a supporting role for Jalili in the debate. They may withdraw in his favor after the debates, similar to how Jalili withdrew in favor of Raisi in the 2021 elections.
In contrast to the hardliners, pro-reformist Pezeshkian and moderate-conservative Pourmohammadi emphasized the crippling impact of sanctions. They called for improving relations with the international community as a means to help Iran overcome its economic difficulties.
Many observers noted that Pourmohammadi, who spoke more clearly and openly than the other candidates, appeared to be the strongest contender in the debate. But there are no independent opinion polls in Iran, and it is impossible to gauge the impact of the debate.
Pezeshkian emphasized the detrimental impact of sanctions and strained international relations on the country’s economy, asserting that all political groups must collaborate to effectively implement existing economic plans. He argued that what his rivals term 'circumventing sanctions' has often led to corruption.
For the first time in the history of election debates, candidates were shown participating in a group prayer before heading to the studio, where they took their seats assigned by a draw.
Candidates largely avoided seriously challenging each other or criticizing the economic failures of the Raisi administration, following the "recommendation" of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.
The state broadcaster had warned the candidates beforehand that any mudslinging or discussion of irrelevant topics during the debate would result in immediate and direct intervention by the Election Campaign Regulation Committee.
According to a telephone poll conducted by Shenakht, a polling agency claiming to be private, between June 15-16 with a sample of 1,000 respondents, Ghalibaf secured the support of 29 percent of voters who were certain or undecided about voting. He was followed by Masoud Pezeshkian with 21 percent and Saeed Jalili with 18 percent. However, different polls conducted by different government or political groups reveal different results. Overall, none of these polls can be considered fully reliable.
Some politicians indicate that discussions are currently taking place between the Ghalibaf and Jalili camps to decide whether one of them should withdraw to counter Pezeshkian's competition.
In response to a question during one of his televised interviews about the possibility of one or more “revolutionary” candidates withdrawing to boost another's votes, Ghalibaf claimed he was “more prepared” than the other candidates, hinting that he expected Jalili to withdraw.
However, on Monday, Jalili’s campaign manager Mohsen Mansouri refuted any possibility of withdrawal unless they determine there is “a candidate better than Mr. Jalili.”