Does Larijani’s Presidential Candidacy Signal a Shift in Iran?

Former Speaker Ali Larijani’s registration to run for the presidency has sparked much speculation about whether Iran’s Supreme Leader has assured him that he will not be disqualified and will be allowed to run.

Some political analysts in Iran have welcomed Larijani’s decision to run, expecting that he may be able to improve the country’s international relations.

“It would be foolish for Larijani to enter the arena without any guarantees that the Guardian Council would approve him this time,” UK-based Iranian political analyst Shahir Shahidsaless tweeted.

Shahidsaless maintained that the question now is whether the political establishment, that is the Supreme Leader and his men, have prepared "to work with him" if he is elected or, on the contrary, it is Larijani who has promised to work with them.

Whether or not such guarantees have been made carries significant consequences. Mostafa Faghihi, chief editor of the conservative Entekhab news website in Tehran, believes that Larijani’s registration—and the possibility that he has received assurances from Khamenei has emboldened other moderates and reformists to register as well.

The Reforms Front led by former President Mohammad Khatami, however, says it will not support any candidate, presumably including Larijani, who does not hail from the reformist camp.

According to Shahidsaless, Larijani’s candidacy is “another game by the ruling establishment” for many Iranians. Khamenei and the Revolutionary Guard, they believe, are the main players who aim to increase voter turnout as a means of proving the Islamic Republic is a legitimate political system.

Other Iranians, he argues, believe voting for Larijani is the only way to prevent the hardliner Saeed Jalili from becoming president.

Larijani’s tweet Thursday can be interpreted in various ways

Larijani posted a tweet Thursday evening that can be interpreted in various ways. The only text in the tweet which has been viewed nearly two million times in less than 24 hours is “Without you we will not reach our destination”. “You” in this tweet can be interpreted as referring to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei or the voters.

The tweet includes a google maps screenshot with the area where Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s office is located marked as the “starting point” of a car journey to the interior ministry, where registration takes place, and back to the area where the presidential office is also located marked as “destination”.

This may also be a suggestion that Larijani has received, or expects to receive, guarantees from Khamenei that he will not be disqualified, as he was in the 2021 elections.

Moderate conservative Larijani’s ultra-hardliner rival Saeed Jalili’s most viewed tweet in recent days has received around 260k views during the same time.

Larijani and Jalili’s divergence dates to September 2007 when the disagreements between populist Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Larijani over a nuclear agreement with the West led to the latter’s resignation. Ahmadinejad then appointed Saeed Jalili as the secretary of the Supreme National Security Council.

At a brief press briefing after registration, Larijani emphasized that his government’s strategy would be security and power for “the whole region”. “[Iran's] military and defense capability not only guarantees Iran's security, but also supports the security of the region,” he said. He also maintained that his government will be inclusive of all political groups.

Many believe Larijani’s views and his approach to governance are very close to Hassan Rouhani’s whom Larijani has praised on various occasions.

Larijani’s statement, said expatriate political analyst Ali Afshari in a tweet, was a “clichéd imitation of Hasan Rouhani’s in 2012”. But this time, assuming that Larijani will pass the barrier of the Guardian Council, it will be extremely hard for him to “seduce” those Iranians who do not support the political right and are determined to overthrow the Islamic Republic.

But some Iranians may be influenced by Larijani’s emphasis on improving Iran’s foreign relations. “I’m pleased that Dr. Larijani spoke openly about ‘solving the sanctions issue’ as a foreign policy priority. For a long time, some people in the country have practically turned ‘solving the sanctions issue’ into a taboo and interpret it as giving up the country's security and independence,” Reza Nasri, an international relations expert in Iran, stated in a tweet.