Iran’s Nuclear Threat Escalates as US, European Allies Appear at Odds

In the ever-intricate dance of international diplomacy, tensions between the US and its European allies are reportedly intensifying over how to address Iran’s advancing nuclear program.

Reuters reported on Wednesday that Britain, France and Germany have circulated a draft resolution against Iran ahead of the UN nuclear watchdog's board meeting next week and appear determined to push it despite opposition from their US ally, according to three diplomats.

This week, a confidential report by the UN nuclear watchdog – and seen by several news agencies – painted a starker image of Tehran’s nuclear ambitions. It revealed that Iran’s stockpile of uranium enriched to 60% purity had surged to 142.1 kilograms, edging close to weapons-grade levels.

The increase, a significant jump from previous reports, not only underscores Iran’s ongoing advancements in its nuclear capabilities but also intensifies the public pressure on the West to counter Tehran’s accelerating nuclear efforts.

The Wall Street Journal’s editorial board has meanwhile argued that there is little doubt about Iran’s intentions to join the “nuclear-weapons club.”

The editorial board suggests that the White House doesn’t want another new international crisis before the November election. Highlighting Tehran's malign activities over the past year, including support for terrorist groups, the WSJ editorial board argues that Iran's behavior has remained unchanged regardless of censure. The board insists that appeasement is not the solution as Iran continues to escalate its actions.

In all likelihood, Tehran, which has barred inspectors from monitoring its nuclear activities since September 2023, is already significantly advancing towards developing nuclear weapons – a charge it has consistently denied.

And yet, behind the scenes the Biden administration reportedly lobbied other countries to refrain from censuring Iran at the upcoming IAEA meeting. 

US officials, according to the Wall Street Journal, encouraged other nations to abstain from a censure vote, aligning with Washington's position of seeking a more cautious approach to handling Iran’s nuclear activities. 

The IAEA board passed a resolution rebuking Iran in November 2022, with repeated warnings from US and European officials in Vienna that they would take action if Tehran did not rein in its nuclear advances and enhance cooperation with the agency.

US officials have since denied that Washington lobbied other countries to avoid censuring Iran, saying that it is “actively increasing pressure” on Tehran. 

Be that as it may, the reported US stance contrasts with Britain and France's push for stronger action against Iran to uphold the IAEA’s authority and credibility – leading European diplomats to be “frustrated over what they see as US efforts to undermine their approach,” according to the WSJ.

Other experts, such as Mark Dubowitz, the chief executive of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, argued to the WSJ, that passing a censure resolution would document Iran’s noncompliance, potentially paving the way for the reinstatement of international sanctions.

US officials, though, are seemingly proposing the option to have a comprehensive IAEA report on Iran’s noncompliance, in order to build the case for re-imposing international sanctions. This "snapback" option is seen as a longer-term solution, potentially post-US elections in November. It is widely believed that Washington appears to be stalling on Iran’s nuclear file – hoping to keep the status quo until the presidential election in November.

Adding to the diplomatic complexities is the recent death of Iran’s President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash.

Unconfirmed reports this week surfaced that Ali Shamkhani, a hardliner and adviser to Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, may become the new chief nuclear negotiator.

Shamkhani has been known to oppose reviving the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), a stance highlighted by Mahmoud Vaezi, former chief of staff to President Hassan Rouhani.

As the IAEA board meeting approaches in June, it is highly probable that Iran will not be censured – and in parallel, continue to advance its nuclear program.

That leaves the next US administration, whether led by President Joe Biden or Donald Trump, to face an emboldened Iran with a significant stockpile of enriched uranium.