Iran’s Raisi Axed as Successor to Khamenei Months Before Death

Ebrahim Raisi was reportedly stripped of his potential successor status to Iran's Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, months before his sudden death in a helicopter crash Sunday.

According to reports from Reuters, the Assembly of Experts decided six months ago to remove Raisi from the list of potential successors to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei amid concerns over Raisi's waning popularity, compounded by Iran's deepening economic crisis and international isolation.

His removal signifies a significant shift within the opaque corridors of power in Tehran, reflecting the complexities and secretive nature of Iran's theocratic leadership succession with Khamenei’s favored son among the favorites to succeed.

Vali Nasr, a professor at John Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, said: "Now they don't have a candidate, and that opens the door for other factions or other figures to emerge as serious contenders."

Raisi's presidency, which was initially seen as a stepping stone to the country's highest religious and political office, has instead culminated in a dramatic fall from grace. Critics and insiders alike noted that Raisi was a stalwart executor of Khamenei's hardline policies, particularly in suppressing dissent and tightening the regime's grip amid domestic and international pressures.

However, his inability to mitigate the economic hardships fueled by US sanctions and internal mismanagement eroded his standing.

Alex Vatanka, director of the Iran Program at the Middle East Institute in Washington, said Raisi’s death “could result in internal infighting in the regime unlike anything we have seen since the early 1980s."

Such instability could further expose the vulnerabilities of a regime already struggling with legitimacy issues, as evidenced by the historically low voter turnout in the last parliamentary elections. Official numbers claimed a roughly 40 percent turnout while others showed numbers as low as eight percent, reflective of the record lows seen in the 2021 presidential elections which ushered Raisi into power.