Israel, Iran’s Proxies Exchange Fire After Temporary Calm

Israel carried out an airstrike on a target near Damascus Thursday night, in what seems to be the first such attack since the one on Iranian consulate which led to an unprecedented escalation of hostilities between the two countries.

There has been relative calm in the past few weeks, after both Iran and Israel directly hit the other country, showing their fire power albeit in entirely different ways: Iran launching hundreds of missiles and drones to overwhelm the Israeli defense system, and Israel surgically taking out the central component of Iran’s defense system near a nuclear facility.

Both governments could claim victory and step back from the edge, momentarily perhaps, and under pressure from the United State, which is worried an all out war can break out in the region and drag in American forces.

The airstrike Thursday night had no IRGC casualties, unlike the attack on the consulate. Eight Syrian soldiers were injured in a building operated by Syrian security, according to the Syrian defense ministry. Reuters quoted a source that the site struck was not operated by Iranian units or Hezbollah – but it sat south of the Sayyeda Zeinab shrine, where Hezbollah and Iranian forces are entrenched.

That airstrike was above all a reminder that the fundamentals of power politics in the region remain the same, and another crisis could emerge at any time.

As if another reminder was required, the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, an umbrella term for a number of armed groups backed by Iran, claimed Thursday night that they had launched multiple cruise missiles towards Israel, including (for the first time) at the capital Tel Aviv.

Israel has not commented on the reports, but it’s more or less a given that all such attacks are neutralized by the Israeli defense system mid-air.

Thursday night’s event suggests that the existing calm may be a quiet overture to yet another storm, especially as reports have emerged that an armed group in Bahrain has claimed responsibility for a drone attack on Israel last week. 

The Islamic Resistance in Bahrain – almost certainly backed and equipped by Iran – said in a statement Thursday night that it had targeted an Israeli logistics company in Eilat on 27 April. Also known as the Ashtar Brigades, the group published a short video purporting to show the launch of the drone towards Israel. Its statement said its operation was in solidarity with “the patient people in resisting Gaza”.

This is the first time that a group based in Bahrain has claimed responsibility for an attack on Israel. If true, the attack raises many questions not just about the group and its capabilities, but also about Iran’s capacity and its intentions in the region, as the Biden administration attempts to avert war and even make deals –public and private.

“Iran is pursuing a strategy in which they hope we continue to pretend like we don't understand what the return address is for all this violence,” former US national security advisor HR McMaster told Sky News “And in a horrible, cynical way, Iran is willing to expend every Arab life, if necessary, to accomplish its objectives of pushing the United States, the United Kingdom and our allies out of the region as the first step in establishing hegemonic power in the region and destroying Israel."