Mixed Reactions Among Iranian Regime Insiders Over Israeli Attack

While certain Iranian regime figures advocate for a military retaliation to the Israeli strike on Iran’s consulate in Damascus, others propose a measured response to avoid escalation.

Former Iranian security chief Ali Shamkhani tweeted that Israel has acted as the United States' proxy army in the region, labeling the strike as foolishness for which Israel should face severe consequences. He vowed that Iran would retaliate regardless of whether the United States was aware of the strike beforehand.

IRGC General Esmail Kowsari, a member of the Iranian parliament, has stated that Israel's attack on Iran's consulate in Damascus constitutes an invasion of Iranian territory, warranting a serious response from Iran. He dismissed the notion of "strategic patience" in the face of such aggression, emphasizing that Iran will not hesitate to retaliate against Israel.

Kowsari also underscored that the United States should anticipate Iran's response, cautioning Israel against further attacks on Iran's interests. He reiterated Iran's stance regarding its military presence in Syria, emphasizing that Iranian personnel are there at the request of the Syrian government. When asked about the nature of Iran's retaliatory measures, Kowsari stated that such decisions lie with Iran's policymakers and military commanders. However, he declined to confirm whether Iran plans to target Israel's diplomatic missions in other countries.

However, international lawyer Reza Nasri clarified in an interview in Tehran that while the attack on the consulate was illegitimate and violated international law and regulations, it is inaccurate to consider embassies and consulates abroad as extensions of the country's sovereign territory.

Two IRGC generals and five other IRGC officers were killed in the attack on Monday. Subsequently, reports from Iran say that regime supporters in at least in the two cities of Tehran and Sari, have called for serious military strikes on Israel in retaliation for the attack.

In another development, former lawmaker Ali Motahari asked why in a volatile situation in Syria so many high-ranking military officers were taking part in a high-profile meeting. Alireza Pakfetrat, a lawmaker from Shiraz, also reiterated that it is not clear why such a meeting was held while Israel clearly has access to intelligence about the gatherings of Iranian officers in Syria. He suggested that such meetings should be held in a country other than Syria.

Another Iranian lawmaker, Mansour Haqiqatpoor, echoed the sentiment, stating, "Iran is prepared to deliver a robust response to the Zionists." However, he emphasized that such a response would be measured. He emphasized, "Our retaliation will be decisive and inflict significant losses on Israel."

Nonetheless, like many Iranian analysts and social media activists, he warned that the strike on the Iranian consulate could be part of a plot to drag Iran into a wider war in the region, involving Israel.

Meanwhile, in an interview with Entekhab news website, former diplomat and current political analyst Ghasem Mohebali stated that Israel has opted to escalate the conflict. However, Mohebali urged Iran to carefully consider whether broadening the conflict would serve Iran's interests or play into Israel's hands. He cautioned that overlooking details could entangle Iran in a game orchestrated by Israel.

While many observers, including commentators on the Iranian state TV, have questioned the Islamic Republic's inaction in the face of repeated Israeli strikes on Iran's positions inside and outside the country. Mohammad Taghi Aghayan, an Iranian analyst said on live Iranian TV: "Everyone talks about hard responses to Israel, but no one says where and when." And in response to those who call for calculated measures and strategic patience, he said: "What exactly should Israel do to prompt us to take hard revenge?"

"Hard revenge" is a term coined by Khamenei and the IRGC after US forces killed IRGC Qods Force Commander Qasem Soleimani in 2020. Talking excessively about "hard revenge," "levelling Tel Aviv and Haifa," and "punishing Israel" without taking action is deeply embarrassing for Khamenei. Even many of his staunch supporters are questioning on social media what he and the IRGC are doing and how they are utilizing their power beyond suppressing women and students in the streets.

Khamenei is faced with two options: retaliating and falling into Netanyahu's trap, or refraining from action and facing further embarrassment.