Why Iran's Parliament Rejected Raisi’s Budget Bill

The Iranian parliament has rejected the outlines of next year’s budget bill, a symbolic move as the administration has no way to balance the estimated deficit.

The bill, submitted by President Ebrahim Raisi's administration last week was rejected as 127 lawmakers out of the 236 present voted against it on Tuesday, pointing out several fundamental issues including a huge deficit.

This is the first year that the government is mandated to present its budget bill in two parts: One for the expected revenues and the other detailing spendings. The government now has a seven-day window to implement revisions in the first section of the budget bill before re-submitting it for parliamentary consideration.

Lawmaker Ahmad Rastineh argued that the parliament rejected the bill due to a misinterpretation of the new regulation, suggesting that MPs were looking for data that is supposed to be submitted in the second part. “We voted on the first part of the bill, which is on the revenues. The expenditure section will be presented to the parliament after the approval of the first part and the determination on the budget's revenue ceiling.”

The main problem with the bill was the unrealistic figures that the government had projected for its revenues. Despite repeated claims by the administration about its “realistic” numbers, opponents of the bill found discrepancies in several parts of the document. The parliament’s budget committee issued a report earlier in the week, pointing out 13 problems with the bill. However, it finally cleared it for a vote in a full session, which ended poorly for the bill.

Despite the government’s claim that its budget is balanced, there are several estimates for the deficit, with Iran Chamber of Commerce, Industries, Mines and Agriculture putting it at about 4.5 quadrillion rials or about $9 billion, even the government's over-optimistic projections. Economic website EcoIran cited a report by the parliament’s research center as saying that “the real budget deficit” will be about $22 billion.

In previous years the real deficit has been close to half of the budget. Apparently, the administration’s assessment is that in the next Iranian year (which starts on March 21), it will sell 1,350,000 barrels of oil per day at a price of €65 per barrel. This means around $32 billion annually. However, Iran is selling its oil at much lower prices due to US sanctions, at about $40 to $45 per barrel, which comes out about $22 billion per year.

The exchange rate of the Euro to the rial is considered to be 310,000 rials in the bill. Accordingly, oil and gas revenue for the next year will reach 582.7 trillion tomans (5.8 quadrillion rials or $11.6 billion), which is a 3.5% decrease compared to the current year's budget law. Additionally, tax revenues have increased from 7.4 quadrillion rials in the current year's budget law to 11.2 quadrillion rials (about $2.4 billion) in the next year’s budget.

Iran is offering substantial price reductions to its principal oil customer, China, with details kept secret. Iran has been supplying its oil to Chinese independent and small refineries, known as teapots, with payment delays extending up to three months. Reports from Reuters and Bloomberg indicate that Chinese teapots are securing Iranian oil at a discounted rate, with savings amounting to at least $10-12 per barrel. Iran's approach extends beyond offering price discounts to final oil purchasers; it involves allocating undisclosed portions of its profits to intermediaries and tanker companies involved in these diversionary oil export operations. As a result, the actual revenue realized by Iran may be closer to $40 per barrel, a substantial difference from the international price of about $70.

A point that was highlighted by Iran’s media as the final blow for the rejection of the bill was a lack of fund allocation for a long overdue rise in pensioners’ salaries. Proponents of the bill said that the government had earmarked about $1 billion for the adjustment. In recent years, retirees have held regular protest rallies to demand pension increases in par with rising prices of essential foods. They say the current payments are not in line with decrees by the Supreme Labor Council, which had stipulated a 38-percent increase in the minimum wage.

Another issue with Raisi’s budget was the estimated revenues from tax rises. According to lawmaker Mohammad Bagheri, the most significant increase in budget resources is attributed to tax and customs revenues, showing a 40% growth, while the budget's dependency on oil revenues has decreased by 24 percent. He said unions and producers are already under economic pressure and the rise in taxes will further strain businesses. Last month, Entekhab news website in Tehran reported that according to the budget bill, even monthly incomes of 100 to 140 million rials ($200 to $280) will be subject to a 10 percent tax. 

Hossein-Ali Haji-Deligani, another lawmaker, said that considering the inflation rate in the country, the new budget bill remains practically the same as the current one. Last year, the parliament approved the outlines of the budget bill without considering its unrealistic assumptions.

Deligani said during the Tuesday session that “we will not have any budget increase next year, and this lack of budget increase will lead to the halt of the country's economic growth.” He added that “Increasing taxes will lead to a halt in production, resulting in reduced wages, unemployment, and hardships.”

The government claims that the growth rate will be 8 percent next year, but no one takes it seriously. In January, the World Bank projected Iran to have a 1.9-percent GDP growth, but the figure, even if true, comes on the back of economic retrenchment since 2019.

All in all, the rejection of the bill is more of a political gesture by lawmakers before the March parliamentary elections. There is no possibility for the government to balance the budget. Abbas Abdi, a reformist commentator, suggested that “The outlines of the budget bill were rejected in the open session to convey to the government that the parliament has a say.”