Iran's Foreign Trade Shows $8bn Deficit In Seven Months

The Iranian Customs Authority has reported that the foreign trade balance for the first seven months of the current Iranian year has reached a negative eight billion dollars.

According to the official report, during the seven-month period ending on October 22, Iran's non-oil exports amounted to 28.3 billion dollars, while imports reached 36 billion dollars. The substantial trade deficit has raised alarms among economic experts and policymakers.

Meanwhile, the trade balance deficit in the initial seven months of this year has more than doubled compared to the same period in the previous year, highlighting the severity of the situation.

The worsening trade balance, coupled with shifts in the international political landscape, primarily due to escalating tensions between Iran and the United States over the Israel-Hamas conflict, has fueled concerns among Iranian media and economic activists regarding the future exchange rate.

Donya-e-Eqtesad newspaper has issued a warning that if the trend continues, it could force a currency devaluation in Iran. The newspaper also predicts that Iran's exchange rate balance will remain negative in the remaining months of the year.

Former Central Bank Governor Abdolnasser Hemmati has openly criticized the Central Bank's policies regarding exchange rate changes. Hemmati expressed his concerns, stating that efforts to stabilize the exchange rate without addressing inflation might lead to rent-seeking, more capital flight, and renewed currency shocks.

Ham-Mihan, a pro-reform daily, made a grim prediction on October 17, suggesting that if revenue realization in the second half of the current year follows a pattern similar to the first half, the budget deficit could double compared to the previous year.