Iranian Parliament Think Tank Claims A Lower Budget Deficit

The research center of Iran’s parliament forecasts a budget deficit of $7.6 billion at the end of the Iranian calendar year (March 19, 2024), despite much higher estimates.

The report by the think tank notes that just in the first four months of the current Iranian year (starting March 21, 2023), the Iranian government’s budget deficit can be estimated as 1.02 billion.

The deficit can increase to $10 billion as the government is obligated to fund different kinds of subsidies, including the subsidy of bread.

The numbers in the think tank’s report run counter to the statistics provided earlier by Iranian officials indicating a much higher budget deficit.

Speaking about the budget imbalance, Davoud Manzour, the head of Planning and Budget Organization (PBO), had earlier confirmed that 30 percent of the expected revenues have failed to be realized in the first seven months of the year. This implies a budget deficit of $7.92 billion during that period. If this trend persists, it could culminate in a budget deficit of $13.5 billion, marking the highest budget deficit in Iran's history.

A report released by reformist daily Ham-Mihan on October 16 also forecasted a budget deficit twice as big as the figure in the previous year.

According to the parliament’s research center, the revenues expected to be derived from the sales of oil and oil products have fallen short of estimates when the budget was drafted in early 2023 and this is the main reason behind the Iranian government’s enormous budget deficit.