Regional Implications Of US-Iran Deal Pose Questions

Fallout from the latest US ‘unwritten deal’ with Iran to free US hostages and potentially reshape the nuclear agreement, continues to impact the Biden administration at home and abroad.

Criticism has been coming thick and fast as the State Department continues to deny any sort of update of “nuclear understanding”

Republican Senator Bill Hagerty slammed the secrecy surrounding the latest talks which saw at least $6b in frozen Iranian funds freed up in South Korea and handed to Qatar to manage, in exchange for five dual citizen hostages, as “a Biden family business deal”.

Demanding transparency, he said: “Follow the law by writing these understandings down and sharing them with Congress”, referring to the fact the administration has skirted the legislation to protect any changes being made to the Iran Nuclear Agreement Review Act which requires President Biden to notify Congress of any agreement with Iran related to its nuclear program.

Meanwhile, Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken met with Israeli Minister for Strategic Affairs Ron Dermer on Thursday in Washington, Iran one of the key elements of the talks, including the formation of a ‘limited defense treaty’.

Reports about a potential treaty have been mooted many times in the past, as recently as 2019. This issue died down only to resurface now while being pushed by Dermer, who has not hidden his support for such a treaty for more than a decade.

But, now the talks might become more serious, connected to a possible comprehensive US-Saudi deal, involving Israel and a potential normalization between Israel and the kingdom.

In a press release, the State Department confirmed talks delved into “cooperation on regional challenges, including threats posed by Iran and its regional proxies in Lebanon and elsewhere”, in addition to ongoing discussions about further normalization deals across the region.

Talks to normalize with Saudi Arabia have also come under fire as the implications to Israel’s position regarding its arch-enemy Iran remain at the heart of talks. Jacob Nagel, who previously served as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's national security advisor and head of the National Security Council warned that “a limited defense treaty between the US and Israel as part of a normalization agreement with Saudi Arabia and a trilateral agreement between the US, Saudi Arabia, and Israel, contains much more cons than pros”.

Writing in Israel Hayom, he said this was especially critical when it might come at the expense of Israel's top priority concern: preventing a bad Iran nuclear deal that will lead Iran on its sure path to a bomb in a very short timeframe.

For the US, there is a wide-reaching ripple effect of the talks, suggesting there is more on the table than merely hostages and Iran’s nuclear program. According to The New Arab, Iran has sent General Esmail Qaani, the commander of Iran's Quds Force, for secret talks in Iraq this week in a bid to soften tensions with the US and urge a halt to military action against US forces in Iraq.

The US’ years-long shadow war has seen more than 80 attacks on its facilities in Iraq and Syria with multiple casualties and fatalities among them, and just five retaliations by the US.

As calls for transparency continue to ring loud for the Biden administration, the acting US envoy to Iran remains silent, and the State Department continues to gaslight questions. In its latest press briefing, spokesman Vedant Patel reiterated earlier lines about remaining tough on Iran, claiming the US “will continue to take steps to hold the Iranian regime accountable for their malign, destabilizing activities in the region, as well as more broadly as well”.

Talks behind the scenes remain unclear, but what is clear is regional changes are afoot.