Pundits In Tehran Differ On Prospects Of Change in Iran-US Relations
A former Iranian diplomat says Washington’s contacts with Tehran show that the Americans have separated their ways from the Israelis regarding Iran's nuclear issue.
Abdolreza Farajirad told Entekhab news website in Tehran that the United States and Iran are exchanging messages through Oman and Qatar and this shows they are discussing deals.
Farajirad referred to US Secretary of State Antony Blinken's July 23 statements about Iran where he said, "it was a terrible mistake for the Trump administration to pull out of the nuclear deal reached with Iran in 2015," and commented that "I did not see any threats in that statement, although Blinken had also made it clear that "US officials are currently not talking about an agreement with their counterparts in Tehran."
The former Iranian diplomat argued that "What he said means that the US side is prepared for negotiations with Iran on the condition that Tehran does not threaten US interests and security in the Middle east."
He continued: "Blinken's remarks were positive. If Qatar and Oman also carry positive messages, this will mean that perhaps we are getting closer to a solution."
Entekhab wrote that other observers believe there might be a threat hidden in Blinken's statement. In effect, if US concerns about Iranian intentions to build nuclear weapons are not addressed, Washington might toughen its position.
Faraji Rad however argued that it was a positive point that Blinken was not focused on the nuclear issue in his remarks, although the United States naturally pursues its national interests.
Meanwhile, in reviewing signals Tehran and Washington have been sending to each other, proreform website Farau wrote: "Governments in Iran, regardless of their political affiliation, find out about the perils of sanctions after holding the presidential office for a few years. That is when rationality becomes prevalent."
The website was referring to hardliners currently controlling all branches of Iran’s government, who were staunchly opposed to the 2015 JCPOA nuclear accord, but now, facing harsh economic realities, realize that they have to find a way to have US sanctions lifted.
According to Fararu, the announcement by the State Department about transferring part of Iran's frozen assets in Iraq to Oman and renewed talks about US prisoners in Iran are positive developments, although some observers assess the removal of pro-Iran Robert Malley from the post of US special envoy for Iran could be a negative development for Tehran.
Fararu quoted former diplomat Fereydoun Majlesi who disagreed saying that regardless of recent developments, "there is no positive change under way!" Majlesi continued: "No positive change is likely for at least seven to 10 years. What is going on currently, will only increase the pressures on both sides.
Majlesi added that no positive change of attitude has been observed in Tehran or Washington during the past months to improve relations between the two sides although there have been opportunities for rapprochement."
Another observer, Omid Dabiri-Mehr also told Fararu that the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) is no longer on the agendas of the United States and Iran. There is no prospect for a rapprochement although a tendency is visible in Tehran to reduce the tensions with the United States.
He explained that economic problems including budget deficit and inflation and the destructive role of sanctions have finally made Iran aware of the cost of being at loggerheads with the United States.
