Iran And Its Proxies See Opportunity In Israel’s Crisis

Protesters block Ayalon Highway during a demonstration following a parliament vote on a contested bill that limits Supreme Court powers to void some government decisions, in Tel Aviv, Israel July 25, 2023.
Protesters block Ayalon Highway during a demonstration following a parliament vote on a contested bill that limits Supreme Court powers to void some government decisions, in Tel Aviv, Israel July 25, 2023.

Iran’s IRGC held a three-hour meeting last week with the Lebanese Hezbollah and Palestinian Hamas to see how they can take advantage of Israel’s internal problems.

Reuters quoted an Iranian diplomat as saying that the Revolutionary Guard’s (IRGC) Quds Force attended the three-hour meeting, as Israel’s foes see an opportunity in Israel’s political turmoil related to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s judicial reforms.

Iran and its proxy groups have been devoting special attention to the crisis at closed-door meetings, perceiving this as a potential turning point for Israel, Reuters said.

The Islamic government in Iran began encouraging Palestinian groups for intensified attacks on Israel in March, after it reached a deal with Saudi Arabia to revive diplomatic relations that month. That resulted in the April military clashes that saw hundreds of rockets fired at Israel and retaliatory strikes on Gaza.

But in their meeting last week Iran and its proxies concluded that the crisis had already weakened Israel and agreed they should refrain from any "direct interference", believing this could give Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu the chance to shift blame to foreign adversaries.

A Hamas source declined to comment to Reuters on the account, saying there are ongoing discussions between Hamas, Iran and the Quds Force "over the whole situation and to discuss ways to upgrade the work of resistance".

A mounted police officer scuffles with protesters blocking Ayalon Highway during a demonstration following a parliament vote on a contested bill that limits Supreme Court powers to void some government decisions, in Tel Aviv, Israel July 24, 2023.
A mounted police officer scuffles with protesters blocking Ayalon Highway during a demonstration following a parliament vote on a contested bill that limits Supreme Court powers to void some government decisions, in Tel Aviv, Israel July 24, 2023.

Hezbollah On Patrol

The upheaval marks one of the most serious domestic crises since Israel was established in 1948, ushering in decades of conflict with Arab countries and Palestinians.

Israel's parliament Monday ratified a first bill of the judicial overhaul, limiting the powers of the country's Supreme Court, prompting more protests by Israelis who see the moves as a menace to their democracy.

The divisions have seeped into the Israeli military, which has fought numerous conflicts with Lebanon's Hezbollah and the Palestinian factions Hamas and Islamic Jihad, that receive arms and money from Iran.

Israeli protest leaders have said thousands of volunteer reservists could abstain from duty if the government stays the course, and former senior military officials have warned that Israel's war-readiness could be at risk.

A video shared on social media on Tuesday showed elite fighters from Hezbollah mounting a rare patrol directly at the fenced Lebanese border with Israel, according to a Lebanese source familiar with the deployment.

The source said the patrol along the rugged frontier, where tensions have been running high of late, had nothing to do with events in Israel. 

The source said however that Hezbollah officials have discussed the crisis in detail at the highest levels. The group views the crisis as a development to be exploited in the future, the source added.

People demonstrate on the highway on the 'Day of National Resistance' in protest against Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his nationalist coalition government's judicial overhaul, in Tel Aviv, Israel July 18, 2023.
People demonstrate on the highway on the 'Day of National Resistance' in protest against Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his nationalist coalition government's judicial overhaul, in Tel Aviv, Israel July 18, 2023.

Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich said on Tuesday the Israeli military "is combat-ready and will remain combat-ready" despite the protesting reservists, whom he accused of trying to "put a gun to the head of the government".

Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, in a speech on Monday, said Israel was on a "path of collapse and fragmentation".

Iranian Foreign ministry spokesperson Nasser Kanaani referred to Netanyahu's recently fitted pacemaker when tweeting about the crisis, saying "the heart of the Zionist regime is in deeper crisis than the crisis in the heart of its prime minister".

The threat of renewed large-scale clashes with Palestinians is ever present, with smaller violent incidents occurring regularly.

A demonstrator scuffles with a police officer as people demonstrate on the 'Day of National Resistance' in protest against Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his nationalist coalition government's judicial overhaul, in Jerusalem July 18, 2023.
A demonstrator scuffles with a police officer as people demonstrate on the 'Day of National Resistance' in protest against Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his nationalist coalition government's judicial overhaul, in Jerusalem July 18, 2023.

Sources close to Hamas and the Islamic Jihad say the two groups are monitoring closely the protests in Israel, enjoying the images, and hoping the tensions worsen.

But they are also wary of the risk of Netanyahu seeking to divert attention from the domestic crisis through conflict against Israel's enemies that could unite its people.

“They are following it seriously to assess how this could reflect on them and whether Israel could export its internal crisis,” Gaza political analyst Adnan Abu Amer said.

(Based on a report by Reuters)