Exclusive-Pressure Not Modest Deals Will Deter Nuclear Iran, Expert Says

Nuclear proliferation expert David Albright has told Iran International that military pressure, not “modest deals”, are needed to keep Iran’s nuclear developments at bay. 

Speaking in an exclusive interview, the President of the non-profit Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS) said that in addition to the work being done by the International Atomic Energy Agency, Iran needs “a credible military threat” to keep convincing the regime not to cross the line to build nuclear weapons.

“It requires real attention, and the United States administration is going to have to continue, and I would say increase its efforts to push Iran away from building nuclear weapons,” he said. 

As revelations continue about the resumption of US-Iran talks to make progress on the issue of Tehran’s nuclear program, Albright warned of deals which in the long term, may do more harm than good to efforts to disarm the regime. 

Both Tehran and Washington have denied negotiating for an interim nuclear deal.

“I think they [the Biden administration] can do it [but] I think they're conflicted and I think it's the responsibility of Congress and the public to put pressure on the Biden administration to increase their activities against the Iranian regime and in that process, avoid any deals that may in the short run relieve some of the pressure, but in the long run make the situation worse,” he warned. 

While he says Iran can be kept in check and believes the regime does not possess secret underground facilities which have evaded the eyes of the IAEA’s inspectors, the US cannot afford to turn away. As it focuses increasingly on China and disengages from the Middle East, it is not a realistic policy in a volatile region which needs constant attention. 

“Modest deals to lower the temperature” will not be enough, he said. “The Middle East is complicated … you may want to ignore it but it's not going to ignore you”. 

The regime understands that while building nuclear weapons has some positive aspects, it comes with huge risks, and Albright claims the regime is well aware of this, meaning it too must tread carefully.

“I think Iran can be stopped,” he said. “They haven't made the decision to build nuclear weapons. They increased their capabilities to produce weapon grade uranium. If they wanted, they could take the existing stockpiles of 20 and 60% enriched uranium and make enough weapon grade uranium for five nuclear weapons in a month but that doesn't mean they'll do it.”

However, having the fissile material is the first step and within as little as six months to a year, Iran could make a nuclear weapon, meaning the US and its allies must keep the pressure on the regime to ensure it does not cross the line. 

Publicly, the US continues to deny any deals or new rounds of talks with Iran, after revelations disclosed meetings in Oman this month. At the State Department press briefing this week, a very uncomfortable spokesman Matthew Miller tried to evade questions pressing him on the nature of talks, which he brushed off as “false” and “misleading”. 

However, speaking to the New York Times this week, Ali Vaez, the Iran director for the International Crisis Group, a conflict prevention organization, said talks are merely an attempt to calm tensions rather than strike a new deal, the goal to “put a lid on any activity that basically crosses a red line or puts either party in a position to retaliate in a way that destabilizes the status quo” and “create time and space to discuss the future diplomacy and the nuclear deal”.

The renewed US focus on Iran’s nuclear program a year after talks broke down comes amid growing concern within the Biden administration that Tehran could precipitate a crisis by further increasing its uranium enrichment.

Former White House Middle East policy advisor, Dennis Ross, told the New York Times: “The US seems to be making clear to Iran that if you go to 90 percent, you’re going to pay a hell of a price.”

“They want the priority and focus to remain on Ukraine and Russia,” he said. “Having a war in the Mideast, where you know how it starts but you don’t know how it ends, that’s the last thing they want.”