Iran's Conservatives Fear Losing Upcoming Elections

An influential commentator in Iran says the weak performance of President Ebrahim Raisi's administration has seriously terrified his conservative allies.

Mohammad Mohajeri, a conservative himself and former editor of hard-line daily Kayhan, has said in an interview that conservatives believe the current government has left such a bad record that its opponents are highly likely to win the next parliamentary and presidential elections.

"However, their fear may be baseless as the supporter of reformists and a large part of Iranian voters are not willing to take part in the elections," Mohajeri said, adding that nonetheless, conservatives will continue their smear campaign against relative moderates such as former President Hassan Rouhani, former Majles Speakers Ali Larijani and Ali Akbar Nateq Nouri.

Meanwhile, Mohajeri said in another interview that Iran's reformists and conservatives have influence only among 15 to 20 percent of the society. He also charged that 90 percent of Iran's Friday Prayer Imams belong to the conservative camp and the Friday Prayers are a podium for only one political faction.

However, a national reconciliation is possible in Iran only if the government facilitates the political participation of all political groups in the elections. He added that there is not much time for that as fierce campaigning for the parliamentary elections will start in around two months from now.

He suggested that to facilitate political participation, the government needs to bring about essential changes in economic, political and cultural arenas. He argued that the government's inability to improve the economy will keep deeply disillusioned voters away from the ballot box.

Many people are also currently annoyed by the government's unilateralism. Enforcing compulsory hijab and filtering the Internet have deeply annoyed the people so that they are reluctant to take part in political activities such as voting in the elections.

However, Mohajeri said in the interview that some ultraconservatives including those around the housing minister Mehrdad Bazrpash have already started their campaign.

Mohajeri warned that if the government does anything beyond what has been stipulated in the Constitutional Law, the people will feel their essential rights have been undermined.

Many protesters during the past months chanted slogans against Iran's rigid Constitution which gives every right to hardliner clerics to restrict the freedom of the populace.

Meanwhile, he lashed out at the government's heavy-handed approach against unveiled women and said that it was quite clear from the start that policies such as launching a morality police would face resistance by women.

Agreeing with Mohajeri on the situation of the current government, Sharyar Heidari, a member of parliament told Rouydad24 website in Tehran that in the next election Raisi is not likely to win a quarter of the votes he received in 2021.

In another development, Iranian sociologist Nematollah Fazeli said in an interview with Khabar Online that the government does not have a true understanding of the people's demands. Fazeli said the government would have been at ease to accept some of the demands of the people if they were simply about the economy. But the people's understanding of politics and the gender issue has changed over the years and the government cannot understand that.

"Women had a focal position in the recent movement in Iran although there were other activists too. This is caused by a major development in social knowledge in Iran," he said, which “emanates from within the society and its everyday life and the people's collective experience."

Fazeli added that the understanding what happened in Iran during the past months requires a thorough understanding of women's role, but little attention has been paid to this matter by any government entity. This requires a new look at women and femininity, an issue that has been marginalized after the 1979 Islamic revolution, the sociologist said.