Pundits, Media In Iran Speak Of Nuclear Deadlock, Danger Of Conflict

Iran’s President Ebrahim Raisi on Thursday claimed that the Iranian people have asked him to resist against the West as the best path to nullify US sanctions.

Raisi’s claim contradicts the fact that even critics loyal to the Islamic government have been demanding moderation in foreign policy and some have called for a referendum on the nuclear issue. It also contradicts the fact that both the parliamentary elections in February 2020 and the presidential vote in June 2021 were low-turnout events, after heavy screening and rejection of hundreds of candidates.

In the meantime, Iranian media including Rouydad24 and Iran Diplomacy have opined that neither Iran, nor the United States seriously pursue the issue of reviving the 2015 nuclear deal or at least resuming the talks over Iran's nuclear program.

One of the headlines in Rouydad24 reflects the degree of concern over the fate of the negotiations: "How far are we from a military confrontation?" asked the headline. Under the circumstances, according to Mohsen Jalilvand, a former diplomat, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) is more worried than ever about Iran's nuclear activities.

Thursday was day 138 after the suspension of the Vienna talks. During this period Tehran and Washington blamed each other for the suspension. Iran's argument was once again reflected in a 26 July tweet by Foreign Ministry Spokesman Naser Kanani: "The party that needs to prove good faith and seriousness to re-enter the deal is the US…The onus is on the US." This comes while his US counterpart Ned Price reiterated that it is Iran who should make its final decision about the talks and the JCPOA.

According to Roudad24, all this might mean that everyone needs to forget the issue of the revival of negotiations over the 2015 nuclear deal. Meanwhile, the confrontation between the Iranian Atomic Energy Organization and the IAEA is an indication of an escalation that may signal more upcoming pressures on Iran.

Iranian former diplomat Fereidoun Majlesi told Sharq daily in Tehran that apart from all other political reasons, one must acknowledge that there has been a big change of policy in Iran since the 2021 presidential election that led to the consolidation of hardliner conservatives’ power in domestic politics.

Majlesi said that the Raisi administration assesses the impass in the talks as a best-case scenario for itself that gives it the upper hand in domestic politics. The former diplomat said the world has also realized that the Islamic Republic is no longer interested in reviving the JCPOA, so the IAEA is likely to issue stronger worded resolutions against Iran.

Majlesi said that after the IAEA resolution against Iran in June, Tehran is more determined to further its nuclear agenda regardless of IAEA's views. The Raisi administration thinks that by delaying the talks the current situation will be frozen. But the political situation inside Iran may be changing.

Former diplomat Jalilvand on the other hand pointed at remarks of two Iranian officials about Iran being close to the ability to develop a bomb and pretending that Iran is at the nuclear threshold. This may bring Iran some concessions but at the same time it also leads to threats for Tehran.

Majlesi told Sharq that Israel, the most important player in the region, is trying to garner international consensus in support of an all-out attack on Iran as Tel Aviv believes that the nuclear and ballistic missile programs have reached the point of no return, and it is time to limit Iran's power.