Iran Counted On A Russian Victory in Ukraine, Pundits Say

Iran’s president is willing to reach a nuclear deal but “others” oppose it a politician says as others believe Tehran was counting on a Russian victory in Ukraine.

Reformist Ashraf Boroujerdi has said, following a meeting with Raisi along with two dozen politicians last week, that "Raisi himself has come to the conclusion that a nuclear agreement should be reached, but some others who have the upper hand in the government are adamant that Tehran should not sign an agreement with Washington." However, she did not name the elements she believed have the upper hand in making decisions for the government.

Meanwhile, Iranian academic and reformist political activist Sadegh Zibakalam says Iranian officials were misled to believe that Russia will occupy Ukraine in less than one week and .

The officials believed Russia would plant a puppet government in Kiyv and become the master of the world and Iran would benefit from the situation as Russia's ally, said Zibakalm in a live Instagram video as reported by Didban Iran [Iran Monitor] website.

Zibakalam, who was sure in the interview that Iran and the United States will inevitably come to an agreement, expressed concern over "the regional countries' alliance against Iran and the destructive role played by Russia and China."

He said: "We are upbeat about the rise in oil price, and we know that President Ebrahim Raisi is right about a boost in Iran's oil exports, because with the United States deliberately ignoring its sanctions on Iran's oil industry Iran has been selling oil to some Chinese private companies at prices no one is aware of. However, if the Americans make sure that there will be no agreement with Iran, they will twist the arms of the Chinese in a way that they would forget about purchasing oil from Iran."

Zibakalam further added that "a favorable breeze is reaching Iran from the direction of the United States. However, it appears that the Raisi administration has no strategy about how to benefit from the situation." Zibakalam went on to say that "We know today that Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi had come to an agreement with the US side before President Ebrahim Raisi took office, but the new administration initially ignored Araqchi's achievement before finally realizing that the negotiations should take place based on the frameworks provided by Araqchi."

Zibakalam then quoted former Culture Minister Ali Jannati as saying that "it was agreed in the talks by Araqchi that the IRGC should be delisted as a terrorist organization and the sanctions against it should be lifted."

The academic said that the United States has now realized it has not managed to stop Iran from high-level uranium enrichment, and Iran's missile development program as well as cut Iran's long hands from the region, at least in the short run. As a result, United States has come to the conclusion that it should adopt a milder policy toward Iran. However, Iran has misunderstood this soft approach. Zibakalam stressed that Iran has wrongly interpreted the change in US policy as a retreat.

In an interview with Didban Iran, former diplomat Fereidoun Majlesi also said that the Revolutionary Guard (IRGC) does not want to be removed from the US list of terrorist organizations because in that case Iran would sign a new nuclear agreement with the United States.

Majlesi argued that the IRGC has an international agenda that may not be implemented if there is an agreement between Iran and the United States. He said that is also the reason why there is a resistance in Iran against abiding by the regulations of the Financial Action Task Force (FATF).

Like Zibakalam, Majlesi also agreed that Russia's invasion of Ukraine has made a nuclear agreement with the United States harder to reach. "Iran's official support for Russia in the hope of benefitting from Russia's measure adversely affected the negotiations to revive the nuclear agreement (JCPOA). But Russians only follow their own interests. There is no reason for them to follow Iran's interests because they do not need us," said Majlesi.