Magnitude 5 Aftershock Hits Southern Iran Following Sunday Tremor

Hassan Kazemi-Qomi was appointed by President Ebrahim Raisi (Raeesi) as special envoy in the aftermath of the Taliban victory in Afghanistan in August.

The Iranian embassy in Kabul had announced that Kazemi-Qomi would visit to negotiate with the Taliban over “regional issues, migrants, humanitarian assistance and the formation of an all-inclusive government.”

Iran initially welcomed the Taliban victory as a sign of US weakness and defeat but later it adopted a more cautious approach as attacks increased against Shiites in Afghanistan. Tehran has demanded that the Taliban ensure security for all citizens.

The Iranian envoy after arriving in Kabul said he would hold discussions about how to advance “constructive relations” between Afghanistan, Iran and regional countries. Other Iranian officials have been in contact with the Taliban since August.

Kazemi-Qomi, who is said to have been an officer in the Quds Force of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard, served as the first Iranian ambassador to Iraq after the fall of Saddam Hussein.

Lawmaker Hassan Norouzi told the parliamentary news service Monday he had not made remarks attributed to him Sunday by Didban-e Iran website over the 2019 protests when hunreds were killed by security forces.

Norouzi said a “fake reporter” had called him and asked about the ‘Iran Atrocities Tribunal’ held in London last week. But Didban-e Iran defended its report, insisting it had taped the conversation and might sue the deputy.

Norouzi allegedly told the website: "I was one of those who shot people. [Yes,] we killed people… They had set fire to banks and we killed them. Who is going to put us on trial for it?" He then allegedly said was "joking" and hung up.

The comments, as reported, drew swift condemnation. The conservative newspaper Jomhouri Eslami wrote that “such a joke” was “deplorable by anyone, but even more by you who are a cleric wearing the cloak of the Prophet of Mercy [Muhammad].” The newspaper argued that Islamic values required those setting fire to banks to face justice and a proportionate punishment rather than being killed before a crime was proved.

Human rights lawyer Ali Mojtahedzadeh, in a commentary published by Didban-e Iran Monday, noted that Norouzi was a member of the parliament's Legal and Judiciary Committee, making his statements "even more deplorable.”

"What kind of a joke can this be when according to official figures nearly 300 people died in this incident, many more were wounded or detained, and so many lives were ruined?" Mojtahedzadeh asked. He criticized parliament and judiciary for not carrying out "a minimum level of investigation" after two years. "Which legal system in the world doesn't charge even one person for the murder of at least 300 citizens in the streets in broad daylight?” he asked.

Iran has not officially announced figures for deaths or arrests, nor put anyone on trial for killing protesters, but has prosecuted and passed heavy sentences including the death penalty on protesters on charges including “assembly and collusion against the regime.” Officials have put the number at over 200. Independent reports have put the number of protesters killed between 300-1,500.

Mojtahedzadeh claimed Iran had laws forbidding security forces shooting suspects above the waist in any situations and that shooting anyone, even if they were setting fire to banks, needed strong justification: "The real tragedy is that not only justice, based on Sharia and the law, has not been served in the case of these events but also some truths are being distorted and even mocked."

A video posted on social media by ‘mothers of victims’ challenged Norouzi to “stop hiding in your lair with 30 bodyguards” and to “come out and face us.”

The ‘Iran Atrocities Tribunal’ claimed in a Tweet Saturday that Iran’s deputy foreign minister Ali Bagheri-Kani had threatened to “stop part” of Iran’s discussions with world powers if London did not stop the tribunal meeting. The tweet claimed the tribunal, which purports to be quasi-judicial investigation into the November 2019 protests, learnt this from “European sources.”

Didban-e Iran's report Saturday also claimed its “informed sources” had said the foreign ministry had protested to the British government for allowing the tribunal be held in the UK.

Defense Minister Diego Molano was quoted as saying that two months ago Colombia arrested and then expelled “two Hezbollah-sponsored criminals who had intentions to commit a criminal act in Colombia.”

The former Israeli agent was secretly taken out of the country when Israeli intelligence realized he was targeted by Hezbollah in a possible assassination attempt. Hezbollah presumably operates freely in neighboring Venezuela, which has close ties to Iran.

Molano was also quoted as saying there is a "risk with Hezbollah in Venezuela and what its relations with drug trafficking or terrorist groups on the Venezuelan side could generate for national security.”

Some reports in Colombian media say the plot was meant to avenge the killing of Qasem Soleimani, Iran’s top military and intelligence operative in the Middle East to was killed by a US drone attack in Baghdad in January 2020.

Colombian President Ivan Duque who visited Israel last week told local media that Colombia has a close relationship with Israel and is serious about preventing terrorism on its soil.

During the past week, an increasing number of analysts and political commentators in Iran have pointed out that some of Tehran's expectations including the lifting of all sanctions and demanding guarantees of a permanent US commitment to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) might be farfetched.

It is not yet clear whether they are urging the government to make life easier for Iranians or it is the government that directs the commentators to make remarks politicians might want to use to justify a dramatic change in their positions once nuclear talks resume at the end of November.

Hardline analyst Mehdi Poursafa wrote in a commentary published by IRGC-linked Fars news agency on November 14 that "Negotiations only aiming at lifting the sanctions will not bear any particular fruit when looked at from a legal standpoint." He suggested that "instead, Iran should make sure that it has some verifiable financial gains."

Safapour argued that the United States has regularly awarded exemptions to Iran sanctions, allowing limited oil exports and natural gas sales. He implied that the same approach could apply to some of the current sanctions in the future.

It appears that analysts like Safapour would be happy with such exemptions. He also mentioned the example of US exemptions about trade with China regardless of sanctions imposed in the 1980s following the Tiananmen Square atrocities.

The biggest advantage Iranian negotiators can gain in the next round of negotiations with the West is "a framework that enables Iran to benefit from trade deals with the West", Safapour maintained, regardless of formal commitments.

Meanwhile, moderate conservative Khabar Online summarized debates on Clubhouse among Iranian analystsabout the same matter. Hassan Lasjerdi, one of the editors of the website said that negotiators from all sides normally brag about their expectations during the weeks before talks begin. He said most of the preconditions, including lifting all the sanctions before negotiations start are not achievable. Lasjerdi said he was sure negotiators' remarks will become more reasonable once the talks start.

Mehrdad Pashangpour, a political analyst also opined that the call for the lifting all the sanctions against Iran is "a good political bluff."

Political activist Hadi Mousavi said individuals around former nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili, including Bagheri, have begun thinking that the nuclear issue is not the main topic of the upcoming talks. It is a pretext based on which other matters could be discussed between Iran and the West.

He argued that the United States gave as many concessions to Iran as it could during the previous rounds of talks and now it is Iran that should be ready to give concessions. As a matter of fact, Mousavi said, because of opposition to the JCPOA in the US Senate, America might even take back some of the concessions it had previously offered.

Mohammad Mohajeri, another editor at Khabar online said that Zarif and his team were against the December 2020 legislation that called for the reduction of Iran's commitments under the JCPOA while hardliners at the time supported the bill. Mohajeri said that now the hardliners have also realized that the legislation is not in Iran's best interest, and it is likely to be overturned overnight with a decree from the Supreme Council of National Security.

Oddly enough, while reformists and conservatives alike highlighted Raisi’s shortcomings, his only defendant appears to be his father-in-law, the firebrand Friday Prayers Imam of Mashhad in northeastern Iran.

Reformist daily newspaper Sharq in its Twitter account quoted Alamolhioda as having said on Friday that "Problems cannot be sorted out within a hundred days, although one can begin to move toward an improvement." However, Alamolhoda did not say whether Raisi has made the move yet. Meanwhile, Tehran's Friday Prayers Imam Seddighi attributed all economic problems as well as water shortage to the "sins committed by young Iranians."

Reformist analyst Abbas Abdi, told conservative daily Sobh-e No in an interview that there were three positive points in Raisi's track record during the past 100 days: "His provincial visits, boosting nationwide vaccination against COVID-19, and refraining from badmouthing Iranian and foreign individuals and organizations."

However, Abdi warned that that the people might be soon disillusioned with the president’s provincial visits if they see no improvement in their situation. Meanwhile, many critics have pointed out that the progress in vaccination is being highlighted after months of delays in the purchase of vaccines from abroad.

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei banned American and British vaccines in January, thwarting the national vaccination effort until August, when Raisi took office.

Abdi criticized Raisi for his failure to define and pursue a clear a foreign policy, key to solving economic problems, and to sort out issues in the country's domestic politics which is most prominently evident in the appointment of officials' relatives to key posts in the government mindless of their lack of qualifications.

Meanwhile, Gholamreza Noori, a conservative lawmaker in an interview with moderate website Rouydad24 said that "the country's economy is facing a major crisis and criticism of the Raisi administration is gaining momentum on a daily basis." He also criticized Raisi for his provincial visits saying that "It is good that he visits the provinces, but it is not good that he says he visits to find out about their problems." He added that it is regrettable the Raisi administration has started its fourth month in office failing to stabilize skyrocketing prices.

Noori added: "Every day if you listen to parliament proceedings on the radio you will hear conservative lawmakers complaining against the administration's shortcomings." He warned that "There is a limit to the lawmakers' patience."

A similar warning was made by Abdi who said Raisi should note that his honeymoon with the Majles (parliament) is going to end soon.

Like many other conservative and reformist critics, Noori charged that "Raisi has no plan to solve any problem." He added: "The administration has still not responded to lawmakers' questions about how it is going to tackle the budget deficit and how it is going to regulate the markets. And there is no indication that the government is going to take the initiative about problems such as the JCPOA and FATF."

The lack of a plan on the part of the government to solve the country's problems was also highlighted in reformist figure Ali Soufi's article about Raisi's 100 days in office. Soufi said that this will badly harm the government's credibility. Meanwhile, like many other critics affiliated with various political groups, Soufi also denounced nepotism in the government.

Earlier, another lawmaker, Massoud Pezeshkian had warnedthat if these problems are not solved within a reasonable period of time, the nationwide protests that shook Iran in 2018 and 2019 are likely to reoccur.