Iran hints at a foreign policy facelift

In his first state TV interview as Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi on Friday hinted at a diplomatic shift, stating that ongoing tensions with the West shouldn't burden the Iranian nation.

"The overarching approach of the 14th administration's foreign policy reflects a nuanced balance between continuity and transformation," Araghchi said. He suggested that should Europe abandon its “aggressive” stance, "they will become Iran’s priority" once more—a position currently occupied by Russia and China.

The statement comes amid a backdrop of strained relations between the EU and Iran, with the bloc accusing Tehran of failing to curb its nuclear activities, supporting Palestinian militant group Hamas, backing Russia's aggression in Ukraine, and committing human rights violations.

Regarding relations with the US, Araghchi said that tensions exist between the two countries and that "In our foreign policy, it is our responsibility to minimize the costs of the [US] aggression to the greatest extent possible and to avert the formation of an international consensus against us," Araghchi said.

Although similar nuanced statements by Iranian officials in recent weeks are far from being a clear signal of a significant foreign policy shift, they could be attempts to explore the diplomatic environment prior to the US elections.

Additionally, Iran has so far refrained from retaliating against the killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh. With Europe and the US firmly backing Israel and labeling Iran as a regional sponsor of terrorism, any aggressive move could solidify Iran's position as the antagonist in the eyes of the international community. Moreover, with Iran's economy in dire straits, even the desire to respond might be overshadowed by the harsh realities of their financial limitations.

Meanwhile, Tehran appears intent on conveying that this restraint is not a sign of weakness but rather a deliberate display of strategic flexibility—or perhaps even an act of calculated magnanimity. Araghchi, after all, had earlier asserted that retaliation remains Iran's right, making it clear that any decision to withhold action is deliberate, not due to lack of resolve.

Araghchi already appears to be setting his diplomatic wheels in motion. On Thursday, he called for dialogue with the European Union to address bilateral issues following a conversation with the bloc’s top diplomat.

“The Islamic Republic of Iran welcomes the development of relations with the European Union in an environment based on mutual respect,” Araghchi stated late Thursday.

In a subtle move that could yet be another signal of a shift in tone, Iran extended congratulations to Ukraine on its Independence Day on Saturday. This gesture comes despite its ongoing support for Russia, including the supply of hundreds of Shahed drones since mid-2022, which have been used extensively to target civilian infrastructure and urban centers in Ukraine.

Whether this gesture signifies a significant change or a deft diplomatic maneuver remains uncertain, and Russia’s response to Iran’s potential diplomatic recalibration will undoubtedly draw keen attention.

Araghchi's Friday statements hinted at a nuanced recalibration in Iran's foreign policy, but he anchored every remark in the words of the Supreme Leader. He acknowledged a strategic pivot towards unity between the presidential administration and the "nezam" (regime) citing this as a key issue in the West's troubled relationship with Iran.

For many years, it has been evident that Tehran's officials often present a narrative to the West suggesting that Supreme Leader Khamenei must be persuaded to take any significant conciliatory steps. However, this tactic appears to have lost its impact, as the West increasingly sees any perceived divergence within the Iranian establishment—especially from Khamenei, the ultimate decision-maker—as largely inconsequential.

Araghchi also highlighted the Supreme Leader’s dual strategy: On one hand, there is the long-standing tactic of circumventing sanctions—a practice he subtly indicated falls outside the Foreign Ministry’s purview. On the other hand, the immediate and pressing priority is the removal of sanctions, primarily through negotiations with the West.

The practice of circumventing sanctions, often driven by the Revolutionary Guards, has not only failed to bolster the economy but has also exacerbated many of Iran's current challenges by fueling widespread corruption through illicit activities such as money laundering.

“During a meeting with members of Parliament, the Supreme Leader emphasized that sanctions can be lifted through honorable means, and it is the responsibility of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs to initiate and lead these efforts,” Araghchi said.

"If the opportunity arises to lift the sanctions, we will not hesitate for even an hour; our commitment to removing these sanctions—whether through negotiation or any other honorable and dignified means—will be unwavering and persistent," he added.

This tonal shift has subtly surfaced among Iran's leadership in recent days. On Friday, Iranian lawmaker Mojtaba Zonnour, once famously known for symbolically burning a copy of the 2015 nuclear deal in parliament, expressed support for the accord, provided broad consensus exists on its revival.

Even figures typically associated with more hardline rhetoric are signaling a change. Hassan Aboutorabi-Fard, Tehran's Interim Friday Prayer Imam, remarked that "the Islamic Republic has become a tangle of unresolved problems," cautioning that "if we neglect reform today, tomorrow may indeed be too late."