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Iran's Raisi Needs To Get Rid Of US Sanctions To Deliver On Promises

Iranian newspapers have expressed concern over how the newly elected president Ebrahim Raisi will engage 70 percent of eligible voters who did not vote in the June 18 election or cast blank ballots, many as a sign of unhappiness.

Raisi is inheriting an essentially bankrupt economy, with above 50 percent inflation and with a 50 percent budget deficit. His success will depend on improving state finances to prevent a further impoverishment of a disillusioned population. Pundits in Iran say that despite political speeches of self-reliance, there is only on way out – lifting of US sanctions.

Vahid Shaghaghi in Tehran has told the Iranian Labor News Agency (ILNA) that if Iran and the United States reach an agreement on the revival of the 2015 nuclear deal before Raisi takes office, the rate of exchange for the US dollar in Iran will plumet to around 200,000 rials. That would not be an earth-shattering development, but a nearly 20 percent rise in the exchange rate of the battered rial.

Sharq newspaper wrote on Monday that unlike Iran's previous presidents who started their work by holding meetings with politicians, Raisi's first move was to meet with private sector businessmen and a visit to the Tehran's stock exchange which also showed a positive reaction to the election of the new President. 

According to the daily, Raisi should that he was in touch with realities when he said that the markets cannot be controlled by issuing directives. That was the Rouhani's administration's approach to regulating the markets, his critics said over and over during the past eight years.

Meanwhile, Shaghaghi told ILNA that he expects a US-Iran agreement before Raisi takes office, which would allow Iran's oil exports to rise during the coming months and parts of Iran's frozen oil money in foreign banks will also be repatriated. With the revival of the JCPOA, the Raisi administration will find access to financial resources that will help it tackle some of the current economic problems. However, Shaghaghi noted that this s a short-term solution and major planning and changes are needed for a more longer-term remedy.

He also noted that the new administration also needs to sort out the financial impact of the coronavirus pandemic that has affected the country's economic growth rate by more than five percent and badly damaged the economy. 

Generally, he said the flourishing of businesses as a result of lifting the sanctions and an improvement in the situation of the pandemic is expected to start in late September if everything goes ahead in the right direction and smoothly. In the long run however, Iran should be also concerned about the decreasing popularity of fossil fuels which is going to affect Iran's oil revenues.

On the political front, several newspapers have warned Raisi during the past two days that he needs to find a way to engage the 70 percent of eligible voters who did not vote for him or boycotted the election or cast blank ballots as a political gesture. Raisi needs to deal with the ever-present danger of unrest.

Arman daily called on Raisi "to start confidence building and winning the trust of those 70 percent." The daily reminded that "the most important concern among the entire nation is their livelihood. Raisi has promised to build four million houses and create one million jobs every year, and now we have to wait and see how he is going to stand by those promises."

Delivering such promises need exporting at least two million barrels of crude a day and foreign trade, all dependent on lifting of US sanctions.

In his first speech after election results were revealed, Raisi said that he is the president of those who voted for him and those who didn't, and those who did not take part in the election. Ebtekar daily, wrote in a commentary, "It is now time for Raisi to prove that." The daily quoted some voters as saying, "Do not disappoint us Mr. President!, we did our part and it is now your turn to fulfil your responsibility." Another voter said: "Do not disappoint the barefoot voters!"

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