Iran demands access to $12B in Qatar funds as precondition for US MoU

The judiciary’s Mizan news agency said Kian was convicted of “intelligence activity for Israel and the United States” and sending information related to Iran’s defense industries,

Kian, Mizan said, was accused of transmitting coordinates and information about defense industry units to “networks affiliated with Israel and the United States” during attacks by the two countries against the Islamic Republic. The judiciary said a court sentenced him to death and confiscation of property.

Mizan said fewer than 50 days passed between Kian’s arrest and execution on May 24, describing the case as part of orders for “decisive and swift” handling of files linked to alleged cooperation with Israel and the United States.

• 

  Amnesty says Iran drove global surge in executions in 2025

The execution marks a sharp increase in the pace of political and security-related executions in Iran over recent weeks.

The HRANA human rights news agency previously reported that the Islamic Republic executed at least 52 prisoners on political and security-related charges between March 2025 and 2026.

Based on those figures, the rate of such executions has risen from roughly one per week earlier in the year to about one every two days over the past two months.

Concerns over accelerated prosecutions

The speed of Kian’s arrest, prosecution and execution has deepened concerns over due process in political and security-related cases in Iran.

Cases involving espionage and national security accusations in the Islamic Republic have long drawn scrutiny from rights groups and lawyers over allegations of forced confessions, torture, restricted access to independent lawyers and denial of fair trial guarantees.

Iran’s judiciary did not disclose the exact date of Kian’s arrest, details of court proceedings, whether he or his family had access to a lawyer of their choosing or how the Supreme Court reviewed the case.

Thousands detained after attacks

Iranian security forces have detained thousands of people across the country on political and security accusations since attacks by the United States and Israel began on February 28.

Police chief Ahmadreza Radan said on May 17 that security forces had arrested 6,500 people since the start of the conflict.

• 

  Abroad they talk, at home they hang

Radan described the detainees as “traitors and spies,” accusations that lawyers and human rights organizations say Iranian authorities frequently use against opponents and protesters.

Human rights groups have warned that mass arrests combined with accelerated judicial proceedings in security cases could place more detainees at risk of execution.

Traders and consumers say prices for phones, laptops and computer components now shift daily as importers grapple with currency pressures, supply uncertainty and disruptions to long-established trade routes through the United Arab Emirates, according to Eghtesad News.

“Today’s price is only valid for today,” has become a common refrain among sellers in Iran’s technology markets, reflecting uncertainty over replacement costs and future supplies, the report added.

The disruption has hit not only premium electronics but also basic hardware including SSD drives, graphics cards, motherboards, monitors and repair parts, according to market participants and customs data cited in the report.

UAE route emerges as key vulnerability

Iran’s technology market has long depended heavily on Dubai as a regional import and logistics hub for electronics. Customs figures cited in Iranian trade reports show roughly 600,000 laptops worth around $260 million entered Iran in 2023, with the overwhelming majority routed through the UAE.

100%

Broader trade data also point to the scale of dependence. Iranian customs statistics showed exports from the UAE to Iran reached around $19.1 billion between March 2024 and January 2025.

Importers say alternative routes through China, Turkey, Oman and Qatar remain slower, more expensive or less flexible than the Dubai-based networks that previously dominated the market.

Mobile phones and laptops move out of reach

Iran’s mobile phone imports dropped sharply in 2025, according to customs figures cited in the report. Commercial imports fell to about 8.4 million devices worth roughly $1.6 billion, down from 11.4 million phones valued at nearly $2.5 billion a year earlier.

The loss of the national currency’s value against the dollar, along with rising import costs, has also fed directly into retail prices. Some high-end Apple models now sell for several billion rials, with certain iPhone 16 Pro Max listings approaching 5 billion rials ($2800) in some stores.

Laptop prices have also surged. Entry-level student laptops now commonly exceed 400 million rials ($225), while mid-range work models often sell for between 800 million and one billion rials ($450-550).

• 

  Inflation pushes Iranians to buy food in installments

For many households and small businesses, the shift has changed buying behavior. Consumers increasingly delay purchases, turn to second-hand devices or opt to repair aging hardware instead of replacing it, added the report.

The pressure extends beyond consumers. Software firms, engineering offices, freelancers and online businesses now face sharply higher costs for maintaining basic digital infrastructure, adding strain to sectors already coping with weak purchasing power and economic uncertainty.

The latest signs of movement followed a flurry of regional diplomacy involving Pakistan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Turkey, Egypt, Jordan and Bahrain, as several Middle Eastern leaders urged Washington to accept a deal and prevent a renewed escalation.

Trump said in a Truth Social post that an agreement involving the United States, Iran and several regional countries had been “largely negotiated” and was awaiting finalization.

“Final aspects and details of the Deal are currently being discussed, and will be announced shortly,” Trump said, adding that “the Strait of Hormuz will be opened.”

Trump said the statement followed what he called a “very good call” with leaders from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Pakistan, Turkey, Egypt, Jordan and Bahrain concerning Iran and “a Memorandum of Understanding pertaining to peace.”

He also said he had spoken separately with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, describing that call as having gone “very well.”

Trump's remarks came after Iran submitted a revised proposal to the United States through Pakistani mediators to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with a US response expected by Sunday, Reuters reported citing two Pakistani sources familiar with the negotiations.

Several Middle Eastern leaders involved in Trump’s call urged him to accept a deal with Iran, Axios reported citing a source briefed on the call. A regional source said the message from Arab and Muslim leaders was: “Please stop the war for the benefit of the whole region.”

Reuters separately reported citing a Pakistani security official briefed on Pakistani army chief Asim Munir’s visit to Tehran that an MoU was being “fine-tuned” to end the US-Iran war.

The official said Munir’s visit had made “significant progress” on points discussed in the Islamabad talks, describing the interim deal as “fairly comprehensive to terminate the war,” while cautioning: “It is never over till it is done.”

The Pakistani military said in a statement Saturday that negotiations conducted during Munir’s visit, after he returned to Islamabad as a mediator, had produced “encouraging progress toward a final understanding.”

'A deal very far and very close'

In Tehran, Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei said the parties were finalizing a 14-point memorandum of understanding that would create a temporary framework for diplomacy.

Parliament Speaker and head of Iran’s negotiating team, Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf, recently appointed Baghaei as the team’s spokesman.

Speaking on state television Saturday, Baghaei stressed that “Iran’s focus at this stage is on ending the war.”

Under the proposed arrangement, he said, Iran and the United States would spend 30 to 60 days after signing the memorandum negotiating the details of the most contentious issues, including Iran’s nuclear program, sanctions relief, the release of frozen Iranian assets and disputes over the Strait of Hormuz.

Baghaei nevertheless cautioned against assuming a breakthrough was imminent. “It cannot be said that an agreement is near,” he said, adding that the differences between Tehran and Washington are “so deep and extensive” that no one can expect several rounds of meetings over a few weeks or months to necessarily produce results.

In a phrase that quickly circulated across Iranian media and social platforms, Baghaei summarized the uncertainty surrounding the talks by saying: “The agreement is both very far and very close.”

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio also struck a cautious tone Saturday, saying “some progress” had been made in talks on Iran and suggesting there could be news soon, while warning that no breakthrough was certain.

“There may be news later today. I don’t have news at this very moment, but there might be some news a little later today,” Rubio told reporters in New Delhi. “There may not be. I hope there will be, but I’m not sure yet.”

He added that there was “a chance” the United States could have something to say “whether it’s later today, tomorrow, in a couple days,” but said the issue needed to be solved “one way or another.”

The Financial Times reported citing mediators and people briefed on the talks that the United States and Iran were close to extending their ceasefire by 60 days under a framework that would gradually reopen the Strait of Hormuz and launch discussions over Tehran’s highly enriched uranium stockpile.

'Collapse of talks still likely'

Despite these cautiously positive signals, skepticism remains widespread in both political circles and the Iranian public.

Fada-Hossein Maleki, a member of the Iranian parliament’s National Security Committee who attended Saturday’s meeting between Asim Munir and Ghalibaf, accused Washington of undermining the talks.

In comments to the Iranian Students News Agency, Maleki claimed that both Iranian and Pakistani officials agreed that the United States itself had created many of the obstacles threatening the negotiations.

He specifically accused US envoy Steve Witkoff of providing “unrealistic reports” to Trump, saying Trump’s social media posts based on those reports had “created sensitivity in Iran and even upset our Pakistani friends.”

According to Iran’s state news agency IRNA, the process “could collapse at any moment because of America’s maximalist approaches.”

The IRGC-linked Fars news agency reported citing a source close to the Iranian negotiating team that talks would fail unless the United States showed flexibility.

The source said Tehran would not discuss its nuclear program at this stage and would make any such talks conditional on US confidence-building measures.

Fars reported that the release of Iran’s blocked funds was among Tehran’s main conditions for starting negotiations, while rules for ship passage through the Strait of Hormuz remained another point of dispute.

Despite Washington accepting some of Tehran’s positions, the three issues remain unresolved and Iran is preparing other options, Fars reported citing the source.

Talks will fail, war will resume: poll

Public opinion inside Iran also appears deeply pessimistic about the prospects for a lasting agreement.

In an online poll conducted by the conservative Iranian website Tabnak, nearly 70 percent of more than 110,000 respondents predicted that no agreement would ultimately be reached and that the war would resume.

Trump kept the military option on the table Saturday, saying it was a “solid 50/50” whether the sides would reach an agreement or the US would “blow them to kingdom come.”

“I think one of two things will happen: either I hit them harder than they have ever been hit, or we are going to sign a deal that is good,” Trump said.

Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei said Friday morning that despite growing speculation surrounding the talks, “no significant progress” had been made.

Diplomatic sources say discussions have focused on a possible memorandum of understanding envisioned as a first step toward broader negotiations, including over Iran’s nuclear program.

The proposed framework would reportedly seek to stabilize the ceasefire and establish mechanisms for managing shipping and navigation disputes in the Strait of Hormuz.

Such an arrangement could provide both sides with temporary political breathing room while reducing pressure on global energy markets already shaken by weeks of conflict and shipping disruptions.

But neither Tehran nor Washington has ruled out military escalation if negotiations collapse before an agreement is finalized.

The Trump administration was preparing on Friday for a fresh round of military strikes against Iran, CBS reported citing sources familiar with the planning, even as indirect diplomacy continues.

The fragility of the process was also underscored Friday by continued attacks from Iranian hardliners who argue the ceasefire itself represented a strategic mistake.

Tehran University lecturer Mohammad Sadegh Koushki said in an interview with the IPTV program Zoom, affiliated with the Fararu website, that Iran had halted military operations just as it had gained the upper hand.

“It’s like a football team that is up by a goal and can score one or two more,” he said. “The momentum of battle was brought to a screeching halt under the name of negotiations and a ceasefire.”

Koushki dismissed the idea that Iran’s conflict with the United States could ultimately be resolved through diplomacy, arguing that years of negotiations had only resulted in greater sanctions and pressure.

Similar arguments appeared across hardline political circles Friday. MP Alireza Salimi said Iran’s control over the Strait of Hormuz was “not negotiable” and that Tehran alone would define and enforce the strait’s “new rules.”

Diplomatic activity nevertheless appeared to intensify throughout Friday as Pakistani Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi returned to Tehran, with CBS citing a senior Pakistani official as saying his meetings had helped negotiations move “in an important direction,” prompting Pakistan’s Field Marshal Asim Munir to join the mediation effort.

Reuters also reported that a Qatari negotiating team arrived in Tehran in coordination with the United States to help secure an agreement aimed at ending the war and resolving outstanding disputes.

Still, similar moments of optimism earlier in 2025 and again in early 2026 ultimately collapsed into waves of US and Israeli strikes on Iran, leaving deep skepticism about the durability of diplomacy.

In a widely circulated post on X, establishment academic Foad Izadi argued that Washington had paid too little a cost for the conflict to abandon long-term pressure on Iran.

“The cycle of attack, ceasefire, negotiation and attack will repeat,” Izadi wrote, warning against rapid concessions or reopening the Strait of Hormuz too quickly.

The remarks reflected broader hardline skepticism toward the diplomatic push even as intensified mediation efforts suggested Tehran and Washington may still see a narrow path toward a limited deal.

Max Meizlish, a senior research analyst at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and a former US Treasury official focused on sanctions enforcement, said China may be the real pressure point against Iran as it buys most of Tehran’s oil, helps it evade sanctions and provides the economic oxygen keeping the Islamic Republic alive.

“There’s really no more important enabler of Iranian malign influence and Iranian sanctions evasion than China,” Meizlish told this week’s episode of Eye for Iran.

China buys roughly 90 percent of Iran’s oil exports — a revenue Meizlish says directly finances the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Tehran’s ballistic missile programs and its regional proxy network.

“Chinese purchases of that oil are directly supporting the IRGC, the hardline elements of the Iranian regime,” he said. “All of that is funded and backed by China.”

His comments come as tensions rise over Iran’s efforts to exert greater control over the Strait of Hormuz, including reports that Tehran is exploring formalized transit systems and toll mechanisms for ships crossing one of the world’s most critical waterways.

But while global attention remains focused on Iran’s actions in the Persian Gulf, Meizlish argues Washington’s most effective pressure point may lie elsewhere: the financial networks helping Tehran survive economically.

One of the most significant, he says, is Hong Kong.

“If the United States really wanted to, it could bring a lot of pressure there by threatening to cut off all dollar access to Hong Kong as an entire jurisdiction,” Meizlish said.

He pointed specifically to Section 311 of the USA PATRIOT Act, a rarely used mechanism allowing Washington to effectively sever foreign banks from the dollar system by restricting correspondent banking access.

“When we think about Chinese sanctions evasion benefiting Iran, a lot of that money goes through Hong Kong,” he said. “Hong Kong is a global financial hub, and it relies on access to dollars to do that.”

Despite years of “maximum pressure” rhetoric from Washington, Meizlish argues the United States has yet to fully use the economic tools available to it.

“For all the talk of maximum pressure, maximum pressure has been a really effective bumper sticker,” he said. “We need to move from the period of bumper stickers into the period of behavior change.”

The hesitation, he argues, stems largely from fears of Chinese retaliation.

Beijing dominates the mining and processing of rare earth minerals critical to global manufacturing, electronics and defense industries. China could also retaliate against Western firms operating in the country or invoke anti-sanctions laws designed to punish compliance with US restrictions.

“There are a lot of steps that the Chinese could take,” Meizlish warned.

Still, he argues China may be more economically vulnerable than many policymakers assume.

“China’s banking sector is quite fractured. It’s quite vulnerable to economic coercion,” he said, pointing to bad debt, youth unemployment and the country’s prolonged housing crisis.

Meizlish also cited signs Beijing fears the consequences of secondary sanctions. After the United States sanctioned a Chinese “teapot refinery,” he noted, Chinese regulators reportedly warned banks not to extend loans to such firms over concerns they too could become targets.

“To me, all of that supports the idea that the US actually could bring a lot more pressure to bear right now because China is uniquely vulnerable to economic coercion,” he said.

For Meizlish, the broader question is whether Washington is prepared to absorb the economic costs of confronting Beijing more aggressively in order to weaken Tehran.

“We’re in the middle of potentially a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to fully degrade the Iranian regime’s capacity to exert influence in the region,” he said.

But achieving that, he argues, would require moving beyond symbolic pressure campaigns toward far more aggressive financial enforcement targeting China itself.

“There’s no more important country to tackle than China,” he said. “And there are all these unique economic vulnerabilities that we should be taking advantage of.”