Candidates in Iran Hold Second Presidential Debate on Economy

After the official Q&A session, the candidates were given a few minutes for their closing statements. Armed with prepared remarks, they used this opportunity to outline some of their plans.

Ghalibaf made the most controversial remarks by saying that a significant number of the country’s problems arise from the illegal migration to the country from its eastern borders. He blamed "undocumented immigrants" for "serious social issues related to drugs, employment, and divorce."

Taking a page out of US presidential hopeful Donald Trump, he proposed building a wall along Iran’s eastern borders.

Immigration of Afghans has drastically increased in the past one year, with some claiming that up to 10,000 have been entering Iran each day, and the total population of Afghans in the country is approaching 10 million.

This was not the first reference to Trump during the debate. Mostafa Pourmohammadi-- a former justice minister and Raisi’s fellow member of the so-called ‘Death Committee” that sent thousands of political prisoners to the gallows in the 1980s – mentioned Trump in his response to Zakani, who accused him of "Trumpophobia."

He said that he has been among the country's strongest security elements when facing enemies, adding that if anyone were to confront Trump, it would be him. "Now, see what happens when Trump arrives," he warned. 

The last segment of the debate focused on the country’s educational system and the candidates’ plans to improve it. Challenges facing Iran’s education system include overcrowded classrooms, underpaid teachers and migration of university graduates.

Like all the previous rounds of questions, Ghazizadeh started by praising the measures taken by the Raisi administration, using some statistics that were proven inaccurate.

He said 911,000 out-of-school children returned to education under Raisi but determining the exact number of these children is almost impossible due to the lack of up-to-date statistics. The initial estimate was released in a report by the parliament’s research center in 2021,but the center has not issued a new figure ever since.

Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf criticized the frequent replacement of the country's education minister in the past 15 years, and also the low budget per capita for students across the country. "Looking at the Ministry of Education, there have been 15 ministers changed in the past 15-16 years."

Pezeshkian pointed out the discrimination between students in cities and rural areas, specifically mentioning the Sunni majority province of Sistan-Baluchestan.

All the candidates have held high-ranking state positions in the past decades, but they act as if all the country's problems are the result of the decisions and inefficiencies of officials from other political parties or factions.

The second segment of the debate centered on the country's welfare and healthcare system and the challenges people face in paying for medical services. Candidates discussed the specific difficulties encountered by people but none of them provided concrete plans.

Saeed Jalili said the life expectancy of Iranians has increased from 55 to 77 since the establishment of the Islamic Republic, projecting it as an achievement of the healthcare system of the clerical autocracy.

Despite the conservative candidates’ constant efforts to point out positive notes, there was a consensus that the public faces significant burden due to high healthcare costs and an underperforming insurance system.

Ghazizadeh and Tehran Mayor Alireza Zakani, both physicians, said the country enjoys skilled doctors and medical staff, and proposed leveraging this capacity to promote health tourism. Zakani said patients from Iran’s neighboring countries travel to India and pay $9,000 for knee replacement surgery, whereas the same procedure could be done for $6,000 in Iran. Most Iranians earn about $150 to $300 per month.

Ghazizadeh, an ENT surgeon, pointed out that, although the “government allocates $4 billion in cheap dollars for medicine, yet our healthcare system has problems." According to a report by the Central Bank, the amount of subsidized foreign currency allocated for medicine, pharmaceutical raw materials, and medical services in 2023 was $2.3 billion.

He also touched on the issue of emigration of Iranian doctors, a problem exacerbating exponentially in the past several years. Earlier in the year, Iraj Fazel, the president of the Iranian Society of Surgeons and former Health Minister, warned that if the exodus of doctors continues, Iran will be forced to import specialists and send patients abroad.

Last year, the head of the Medical Council of Iran said that healthcare professionals should not “be allowed to leave the country easily”. The remarks by Dr. Mohammad Raeeszadeh follow repeated warnings from many figures in Iran, including lawmakers, that the ever-increasing desire of healthcare professionals to leave the country will cause the healthcare system to collapse.

One of the main issues put forth during the first segment of the debate was the Gini index or coefficient, a measure of statistical dispersion intended to measure wealth or income inequality.

Disparities in both income and wealth in Iran have been growing in the past decades as economic problems including higher inflation and fall in the value of the local currency is worsening.

As rated by the Gini coefficient, Iran’s inequality was highest in 1986 (at 47.4) and the lowest at 37.4 in 2013, averaging 42.2 between 1986 and 2016. The figure fell consistently from 43.4 in fiscal 2007-2008 to 36.5 in fiscal 2013-2014, the lowest for two decades, but has since grown to upward of 40.

The Gini coefficient is so high in the country as some people have become extremely rich, he added.

According to a study by the Parliament Research Center, families in Iran are struggling as the country's minimum wage fails to meet the poverty line. The report, which analyzed poverty trends from March 2022 to March 2023, has underscored a disparity between the minimum wage and the poverty threshold in Iran's provinces.

An Iranian lawmaker, Behruz Mohebbi-Najmabadi, said in 2022 that about 20 million people are struggling with extreme poverty, meaning that about one-fourth of the country’s population are destitute.

A major reason for the abysmal economic situation is US sanctions on Iran's oil exports. The sanctions are imposed for Tehran's nuclear program potentially moving toward a nuclear weapons capability.

While politicians cannot criticize the nuclear program or the country's anti-West foreign policy, they engage in discussion about better wealth distribution, while the government has less money to spend.

Voters realize what the situation is, and most have lost hope in the government's ability to improve the economy. This is a major factor in their loss of interest in tightly-controlled elections.

The first round of questions was mainly about the government’s subsidy program, namely in the form of monthly cash handouts and the subsidy for fuel. 

Over the past decade, the government has been paying monthly cash handouts to the majority of the country’s 88.5 million population. The value of the subsidy has changed in accordance with the value of rial under different governments. The Iranian currency, rial, has lost its value almost 15-fold since 2018, plunging tens of millions of people into poverty.

The administration of late president Ebrahim Raisi paid monthly around 4,000,000 rials, about $7 when Raisi died, to 30 percent of the population at the lowest-income groups, and around 3,000,000 rials to 60 percent of the population. The 10 percent at the highest income level will receive no cash handouts.

According to the head of Iran’s Welfare Studies and Information Center of the Labor Ministry, there are a group of households in deciles one to three who have low incomes and receive around 4,000,000 rials (around $7) in subsidies per month; In the other group, deciles four to nine, the subsidy they receive is 3,000,000 rials ($5).

The candidates discussed different aspects of Iran’s subsidy program but refrained from providing any specific plans. Most of their time was spent criticizing the former governments from their opposing factions, with the so-called ‘principlists’ slamming Rouhani’s administration as a tactic to downgrade Masoud Pezeshkian, the only candidate from the so-called ‘reformist camp.’

Amir Hossein Ghazizadeh Hashemi said during the debate that “under the government of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the value of the subsidy was $45, then it became $3 dollars (under Hassan Rouhani), then it became $11 dollars during the Raisi’s administration.

Trying to distance himself from Rouhani’s administration, Pezeshkian, the reformist-backed candidate, said, "What we follow are the general policies set by the Supreme Leader. This is our red line that we observe."

He justified the presence of people from the officials who served under Rouhani in his campaign headquarters by saying that "Anyone who comes to my headquarters, I will accept, because I want to get votes." Pezeshkian, referring to the economic pressure on the people in recent years, stated that the per capita calorie consumption of Iranians has decreased during Raisi's administration.

According to a study by the Parliament Research Center, half of Iran’s population falls short of the recommended calorie intake of 2,100 calories, with a significant decrease observed across all income brackets, particularly among middle-income earners.

Another hot topic in the first bout of the debate was the subsidy spent on fuel. Iran is providing more than $100 billion annually in energy subsidies to citizens, according to former head of the Planning and Budget Organization Masoud Mirkazemi.

Iran, which has one of the world's largest oil and gas reserves, sells gasoline and diesel at extremely low, subsidized prices, charging less than 10 US cents for gasoline per gallon, or less than 3 cents per liter, while that of diesel is even 50 percent lower. Second only to Venezuela, Iran has the world’s cheapest gasoline price.

For years there has been talk of adjusting prices, but any increase needs to be huge to be meaningful in US dollars. However, fuel price hikes risk fanning the flames of further unrest. Before the government dares to raise the prices in line with international market rates, it is inching towards decreasing its expenditures on fuel subsidies via curbing consumption, thus the policy of stricter rationing. In November 2019, a government decision to increase fuel prices by 50–200 percent triggered a cycle of protests and unrest across the country that lasted for over two weeks. During this time, at least 1,500 civilians were killed by security forces.

While the country is hugely dependent on revenues from crude oil exports, it has failed to modernize the energy sector in general due to sanctions and mismanagement, with power shortages most of the year. Systemic corruption also further cripples the weak system.

The situation has been grave in recent years but when the administration of Ebrahim Raisi assumed office in 2021, the entire energy management system went haywire even faster, drawing backlash from not only the public but even state officials.

A survey conducted by the Iranian Students Polling Agency (ISPA) reveals a significant lack of interest among the electorate, with 73% of respondents indicating they did not watch the first presidential debate on June 17.

The survey, which involved face-to-face interviews with 4,545 citizens on June 18 and 19, shows just 26.8% of the population watched the televised debate, focusing on the pressing economic issues facing the nation.

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According to Mohammad Saleh Meftah, the secretary of the state broadcaster’s election headquarters, "The main focus of the second debate, like the first one, is economic, but it also covers social issues, and the general theme is 'Justice-Based Government Services', which refers to the services that the government provides to the people."

He added that this topic has three general subheadings: first, subsidy policy, poverty alleviation, and poverty eradication; second, improving the health system; and third, improving the education system.

The candidates had been informed about the subjects so that they could be prepared for the debates in advance.

Like the first debate, the candidates have four-minute segments to speak. The first chunk is to express their ideas about questions posed by a panel of former officials and experts. The second four-minute is for dialogue among each other.

The second televised debate between the candidates for the 14th presidential election will focus on the economy and will take place on Thursday evening, June 20th.

The presidential candidates have established a tradition of gathering for a group prayer ahead of their debates.